Hurricanes vs. Capitals NHL second-round playoff series odds, preview: Why is Carolina favored?

For the second straight spring, the Carolina Hurricanes are the betting favorites in Round of the Stanley Cup playoffs against the team that both finished ahead of them and won the Metropolitan Division.

Last year, the Canes came into Round 2 as a trendy favorite against the New York Rangers only to get dispatched in six games after falling behind in the series, 3-0.

This year, the Hurricanes are -164 favorites against the Washington Capitals, who have barely put a foot wrong all season.

Why can’t the betting market resist falling for Carolina every season?

A big part of what makes the Hurricanes so attractive to bettors is the way they play. 

Most professional bettors and oddsmakers heavily skew their betting models towards 5-on-5 stats since the game is mostly played at even strength, and Carolina’s statistical profile at 5-on-5 is elite.

Hurricanes vs. Capitals Round 2 series odds

Not only did the Hurricanes pace the NHL this season with 71 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, they also allowed the fewest attempts per 60, and were the only team in the league that conceded fewer than 50 attempts per hour at even strength. 

The criticism of Carolina’s everything-but-the-kitchen-sink mentality is that the Canes hardly pass up a chance to fire the puck at the net, which leads to a lot of very low percentage looks. No team in the NHL registered fewer low-danger chances, per Natural Stat Trick, than the Hurricanes.

What should also be concerning for the Canes in this series is that the Capitals do a lot of the same things well that the Rangers did last season, and they’re a better 5-on-5 team than those Blueshirts were in 2023-24.

Aliaksei Protas returned to the lineup for the Capitals in Game 5 of Round 1. NHLI via Getty Images

Washington may not tilt the ice like Carolina does, but the Caps finished with the fifth-best goal difference at 5-on-5, and they were eighth in high-danger scoring chance rate and 11th in expected goals percentage.

Not only that, but Washington is an extremely well-drilled outfit under presumptive Jack Adams Award favorite Spencer Carbery.

If you don’t let the Canes overwhelm you, it becomes very difficult for them to win, because they don’t have many players who can create magic on their own. 

The Capitals are as composed and structured as any team in the NHL, so it’s unlikely that they’ll get thrown off their game as easily as most other teams by the chaos that Carolina tries to create. 

Betting on the NHL?

• Check out the best NHL betting sites
• Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NHL

The other edge that Washington has in this series, at least on paper, is in the blue paint. Freddie Andersen has posted strong numbers for the Canes this season, but he was injured in Round 1, and his status is murky for the start of this best-of-seven.

That would leave the inconsistent Pyotr Kochetkov as Carolina’s other option. 

On the other end, Logan Thompson is coming off a terrific season for the Caps, and the former Golden Knight was superb in Round 1. 

The odds for this series paint Carolina as a clear favorite despite not having home-ice advantage.

The tale of the tape, the eye test, and just about everything else suggest this is much closer to a coin flip.

The Caps have value as an underdog in this series.

Long-shot prop

If you’re looking for something a little friskier than just the +136 on the Capitals to win the series, Aliaksei Protas to lead the series in goals is sitting at 30/1.

Protas missed most of Round 1, but drew back in the lineup for Game 5. 

The hulking winger finished with 30 goals this season, the third-most for the Caps this season.

LEADING SCORER: Aliaksei Protas to score most goals (30/1, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.