Hurricane Melissa to Rapidly Intensify as It Heads for Jamaica

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(Bloomberg) — Melissa strengthened into a hurricane southeast of Jamaica and is set to rapidly grow, raising the risk for catastrophic flooding and wind damage across Jamaica and the Caribbean, where the storm has already killed at least four people.

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Melissa’s top winds held at 75 miles (121 kilometers) per hour, about 145 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, the US National Hurricane Center said in a 2 p.m. New York time advisory. 

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The storm will rapidly intensify in the next day and its winds may ultimately reach 155 mph, or nearly Category 5 strength, as it approaches southern Jamaica, where it may make landfall early Tuesday. Potential damage estimates are already in the billions.

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“It is going to quickly turn into the biggest story of hurricane season,” said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc. “It is going to be a very life-threatening — I would even say catastrophic — storm for parts of the Caribbean especially for Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba as well.”

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Areas in southern Jamaica “won’t be recognizable” after Melissa passes, Roys said. Jamaica’s government has begun to position heavy equipment around the island to keep roads open and has called up police to be ready for the storm.

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Air Canada and Air Transat added extra flights and American Airlines Group Inc. beefed up capacity at Montego Bay’s Sangster International Airport, according to a statement issued Saturday. Air Canada, Caribbean Airlines, JetBlue Airways Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co. have all canceled other flights from Sunday to Tuesday. 

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The Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston is scheduled to close Monday evening after the final arrival flight, which is expected at 8 p.m., the Jamaica Gleaner newspaper said, citing Transport Minister Daryl Vaz.

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More than 881 shelters are on standby, the Jamaica Observer said, citing Richard Thompson, the acting director general of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

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While Jamaica and Cuba may take direct hits, the damage brought by Melissa’s heavy rain will be massive across Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic. At least four people have died due to flooding in the two countries, according to the Associated Press, and social media posts show roads and towns are already flooded.

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As much as 25 inches (64 centimeters) of rain may fall across Jamaica and southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the coming days, the hurricane center said. Some places on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula may get up to 35 inches, which would leave many communities cut off from the outside world due to flooding and landslides. Jamaica will also be flooded in the days leading up to landfall.

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“What’s most concerning here is that the island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds before the core – and strongest winds – even reach the coast,” said Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the US National Hurricane Center.