Hungarian Opposition Lead Narrows as Orban Intensifies Campaign

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(Bloomberg) — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party narrowed its double-digit deficit in a new poll after intensifying his campaign less than five weeks until an election, though the opposition Tisza party held a 14-point lead. 

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Tisza under Peter Magyar had 53% support among decided voters according to a 21 Kutatointezet poll published by 24.hu news website on Wednesday. The lead over Orban’s Fidesz shrank from a 16-point edge a month earlier. But among eligible voters, Tisza widened its lead to eight points from seven. 

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The first independent survey since the start of the Iran war shows the gap remains enough to hand Tisza a comfortable parliamentary majority in the April 12 ballot, even if the far-right Mi Hazank party, a potential coalition partner for Orban, clears the 5% parliamentary threshold, the pollster said. 

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At the same time, Tisza would fall short of a two-thirds majority that would allow it to roll back elements of the “illiberal democracy” that Orban has built over his 16 years in power, it said.

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Over the past month, Orban managed to boost his support among decided voters after leveraging the outbreak of the Iran war in his campaign, which had already been focused on casting Fidesz as the “safe choice” for voters in the shadow of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

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Even before the Middle East conflict roiled energy markets — prompting Orban to impose a fuel price cap this week — the pro-Kremlin premier had called Ukraine the “enemy,” accusing it of shutting off the flow of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline as a way to damage him politically before elections. Kyiv has said the pipeline that runs through Ukraine is out of commission due to a late January Russian attack.

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The government has also deployed soldiers at key energy infrastructure sites, saying it’s concerned about a potential Ukrainian move against them. The opposition meanwhile says it’s bracing for a false flag operation aimed at creating a sense of siege among voters as well as a Russian disinformation campaign to keep Orban in power. 

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While pro-government pollsters continue to give Fidesz the edge, top ruling party officials have ramped up efforts to reach undecided voters, including by giving short media interviews to independent media.

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The premier, who until now only attended carefully vetted closed-door rallies, also said on Tuesday that he’ll start to hold public gatherings on city squares starting next week, something Magyar has done almost non-stop since establishing Tisza a little more than two years ago.

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