Howard Levitt: The strike threat from Air Canada’s flight attendants is a moonshot — and unlikely to land

An Air Canada flight prepares to land at Toronto Pearson International Airport in Mississauga, Ont. Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post files

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A 99.7-per-cent strike vote sounds dramatic — until you understand the law, and the games unions play.

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Earlier this week, nearly 10,000 Air Canada and Rouge flight attendants, represented by the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike. On paper, it’s an impressive show of unity. In practice, it may be a misfire.

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Because while CUPE has the numbers, Air Canada has the legal advantage — as does the federal government.

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Air Canada is not some provincial warehouse or downtown café. It is a federally-regulated transportation carrier under the Canada Labour Code, which means any job action is subject to mandatory conciliation, cooling-off periods and ministerial intervention.

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Let’s lay out the facts:

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Air travel can be viewed as an an essential service, particularly during the summer, when Canadians rely on the national carrier to travel across the country and around the globe. Ottawa has legislated workers back to work in far less disruptive industries.

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Consider the precedents:

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If a summer travel strike strands hundreds of thousands of Canadians, Ottawa will face enormous public pressure to intervene. And the current government — already increasingly unpopular due to Prime Minister Mark Carney over-promising a prospective deal with Donald Trump and being elected based on what turned out to be an illusory relationship with the U.S. president — will have no political appetite to side with the union over angry vacationing voters.

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CUPE has framed this vote as a response to poor compensation and unpaid time. But Air Canada flight attendants already earn materially more than many of their North American counterparts. They have generous benefits and significant job security. Their argument about unpaid work — such as boarding time — would, if successful, upend industry-wide compensation models and impose massive costs on the employer. And airlines are in a tough, competitive industry with little room for financial overpayment.

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Unions always tell their members to vote in favour of a strike, even if the do not intend to go through with it. Less than a near-unanimous vote, they assure their members, will signal to the employer that there is not enough appetite to strike, thereby vitiating their bargaining power. Vote to strike, they in essence say, so we won’t have to.