.jpg)
1 hour ago
3
There's no two ways around it. Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love must be spectacular to overcome the stench of his selection.
That's nothing against Love, who's an excellent prospect, a Heisman candidate, and a safe bet to be the face of Arizona football for years to come. But the process behind the Cardinals' decision was the predictable target for media analysts to spew their skepticism.
Fortunately for the Arizona faithful, watching Love pile up highlight runs is an easy way to drown out the noise of yours truly and my similarly minded media folk. Taking Love at No. 3 wasn't ideal process, but if he's a key part of the next rookie passer's supporting cast, he'll become an integral piece of the next good Cardinals team.
Ahead of Love's rookie season, let's take a look at what Arizona can expect and how that compares to Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, who ran this same race a season ago.
Jeremiyah Love rookie projections
My projection model is inevitably going to temper expectations, as it is hoping to predict one's median outcome. While projecting all fantasy-relevant players, rookies become a unique challenge because of their lack of prior data and the uncertainty of their roles.
Love is obviously the highest-projected rookie running back in this class, but it's worth noting just how poor this crop of backs looks. Just two rookies project for more than 750 yards (Love and his Notre Dame teammate Jadarian Price). The next highest total is Kaelon Black at 269 yards, and only Jonah Coleman joins him for 200+ rushing yards in Year 1.
That is a disastrously bad class, even if it is underselling the group as a whole. Perhaps that makes Love's path to Offensive Rookie of the Year that much easier.
| Projection | Carries | Ru. Yds | Ru. TDs | Tgts | Recs | Re. Yds | Re. TDs |
| Median | 231 | 992 | 7.6 | 46 | 36 | 265 | 1.5 |
| 25th | 221 | 900 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 228 | 1 |
| 75th | 242 | 1,083 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 297 | 2 |
Love's projections aren't blowing anyone away (Again, that's by design), but they are plenty respectable. His median projection would have ranked 18th in carries and yards last year, along with 17th in touchdowns among running backs.
Jeanty saw more carries than Love's projections (266), but saw just 975 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. The Raiders were horrible, set back by poor offensive infrastructure, quarterback play, and coaching. Jeanty was never going to flourish in that spot, which is part of why he probably shouldn't have been the No. 6 pick.
Jeanty averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt as a rookie. Love (4.3) is expected to beat that efficiency in virtually any outcome this year, partly because of Arizona's offensive line. Having a Shanahan/McVay disciple calling the shots only helps those odds.
One area where Love is likely being undersold is in the passing game. His explosiveness demands heavy usage and he showed he could handle that load with the Fighting Irish. A limitation of my model is how it predicts backs in the passing game. Most rookie running backs aren't difference-makers through the air, and Arizona isn't going to be a high-volume passing offense. If Love leaves these predictions in the dust, it very well could be from doubling his expected production through the air.
MORE: Jacoby Brissett continues holdout
Similarly, the tendency for teams to load-manage their backs, trust veteran counterparts, and indulge in committees limits Love's potential stake in this offense. With another ~150 carries split between colleagues, my model is expecting Arizona to be a bit conservative with its new star. Las Vegas, last year, was not.
For now, Love's story seems awfully similar to his process-bound predecessor. Good player, bad team, modest production, hope for Year 2. My model isn't buying Jeanty's efficiency in Year 2, although better quarterback play and Klint Kubiak's presence should play a role in salvaging whatever goodwill Jeanty lost a season ago.
It'll take the rest of the Cardinals outperforming expectations for Love to have the kind of rookie season his capital requires. Even so, the talent is obvious. Love doesn't need to lead the league in rushing for Arizona to buy in. He just needs to flash the kind of potency necessary to carry an even bigger load next season.
English (US)