How to win your World Cup pool: Which favorites should you fade?

Two things are true about the World Cup. One of the favorites will likely win the tournament, but there’s almost always a heavyweight that will bow out early.

In 2018 and 2022, Germany was the unfortunate juggernaut. After winning the trophy in 2014, Die Mannschaft has been eliminated in the group stage in each of the past two World Cups.

In 2014, it was defending champions Spain who were sent packing in the opening round along with Italy and England.

Four years earlier, it was France that got dumped in the group stage after the players essentially mutinied against manager Raymond Domenech.

For the millions of us participating in World Cup pools over the next few weeks, that means that picking the right teams to avoid, or fade, is just as important as picking the ones that will go deep.

Two candidates stand out.

England (+650)

England is bringing one of the most talented rosters to the World Cup, but they’ll be under more pressure than just about any team in North America this summer.

Searching for their first trophy since 1966, the Three Lions were placed in a group that will be trickier than expected. They’ll open the proceedings in Dallas against a dogged, experienced Croatian side that has finished second and third in the last two World Cups, respectively. Then they’ll travel to Boston to take on Ghana, who will be managed by the ultra-conservative Carlos Queiroz.

England will be expected to win both of those matches, and they’ll be massive favorites against Panama in New Jersey on June 27, but don’t expect it to be that easy.

Although they’re playing under a new manager, Thomas Tuchel, England has struggled to break down teams playing in low blocks at recent major international tournaments. We’ll likely see Ghana and Panama try to turn their encounters with the Three Lions into rock fights, while Croatia is a disciplined, united unit with the talent to spring an upset.

If England fails to get off the blocks against Croatia in their opener, pressure will mount on Tuchel and his players, and there is a path where this could unravel, especially since this roster features plenty of new faces.

And even if the Three Lions do win the group, their likeliest path would include a date with Mexico at Estadio Azteca in the Round of 16.

Known as one of the most hostile environments in soccer due to its altitude (7,200 feet above sea level) and the frenzied crowd, getting through Mexico in front of their rabid fans at the Azteca would be far from a given.

England manager Thomas Tuchel meets the media. Action Images via Reuters

The Netherlands (18/1)

A quarterfinalist at the 2022 World Cup and a semifinalist at Euro 2024, expectations are high for Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands in North America.

As always, Clockwork Orange are brimming with talent and pizzazz, but they won’t have an easy path through the group stage.

The Netherlands will open its tournament against Japan in what is projected to be one of the best matches in the opening round. Samurai Blue is a trendy dark horse pick in this field, and they were the authors of two massive upsets in 2022, beating Spain and Germany.

Japan’s frenetic pace and all-action style could give the Netherlands fits in transition.

Any misstep against Japan could be a critical blow because the Dutch will take on Sweden in their second match. Although the Swedes got very lucky in World Cup qualifying, they still feature talent all over the pitch, especially up top with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.

Not getting out of the group stage would be a shocker for The Oranje, but there’s some serious punching power in this set.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.