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The Trinidad Chambliss case seemed to have three different rooting parties. People who wanted to see him return to Ole Miss, some who wanted him to go pro and those concerned with the precedent it would set.
In the end, the 'back to Ole Miss' people won and the 'go pro' people most certainly lost. The jury will be out for a while on what precedent it set. What this ruling means for Ole Miss is a topic for another day.
While everything Draft related is subject to change from now until Draft Day, one thing seems obvious. Chambliss not being draft eligible creates a significant gap between projected starters and developmental or dedicated backups.
Chambliss as a prospect was not going to challenge Fernando Mendoza for the top spot, nor was he necessarily going to ascend above Ty Simpson. Chambliss in the draft would have created an interesting dynamic for teams looking to swing for a potential future starter, without spending a top 20 pick to do so.
Examining the draftable quarterback landscape
Fernando Mendoza is as close to a No. 1 pick lock as any drafted top quarterback in recent memory. Barring something catastrophic or completely unexpected, that status is not likely to change.
Simpson is the only other quarterback at this stage, even considered as a first-round option and that is even beginning to look like it's on shaky ground. The one season as a starter factor will come up. Even if Chambliss was in this Draft, he would have needed to do an incredible job during the Draft process to crack the first round.
Even within media outlets that cover the Draft and were brave enough to include Chambliss during his case against the NCAA, no one had Chambliss in the first round. With most outlets willing to give a projection, settling somewhere between the second and fourth rounds.
Until proven otherwise throughout the process, there are only six quarterback prospects that project today as even potential starters at the next level. Simpson, Fernando Mendoza, Garrett Nussmeier, Carson Beck, Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik. Of those seven, only Mendoza is considered to have immediate starting potential.
One could make the argument for Mendoza and Simpson. Had Chambliss been eligible, he would have been the third of that group, but one round later. Creating a value benefit. The Raiders should take Mendoza at No. 1. Simpson should go somewhere between 15 and 25.
Making Chambliss perhaps the only quarterback worth considering in the second round. Before the Combine, the interviews, the pro days and the individual workouts, Nussmeier, Beck, Allar, and Klubnik all project somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.
How does the Chambliss decision change Draft strategy
This Chambliss decision changes how teams will look at QB outside the top 20 picks. Chambliss would have been the bridge between round one and round three. If Simpson is not taken ahead of the twenties, teams could look to trade back into the first round for a crack at landing Simpson. As opposed to waiting for Nussmeier, Beck, Allar, or Klubnik later.
From an NFL Draft perspective, Chambliss was a very interesting prospect. If his measurables are accurate, 6’0 and 200 pounds is at the lower end of the ‘suitable’ range. If he measured at 6’1 and even 5-10 pounds heavier, he might rise a tad. If he ran sub 4.5 considering his dual threat ability, he could’ve also rose.
With this decision going final, NFL teams are now going to have to adjust their strategy as there is no second-round worthy player to take and turn into a starter. This is the Drew Brees factor as it relates to draft position. Brees was incredible for Purdue but not viewed as a first-round talent. Yet in the right system, he thrived. A couple decades later, Brees is a Hall of Famer.
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Now those teams that wanted to prioritize pass rushers, offensive lineman or receivers but still intended on getting a QB they can turn into a starter, no longer can lean on that strategy. Some of those teams are going to need to abandon getting the quarterback second. Forcing at least a few teams to consider reaching for Simpson so they don’t have to decide between four other guys that has significant question marks.
Ultimately for his future NFL career, coming out in 2026 would have been better for his Draft position. Going into the 2025 season, there were believed to be as many as 8-10 quarterbacks analysts believed could be franchise quarterbacks. All of them do not look that way today.
More: Trinidad Chambliss wins case amid NCAA lawyers ghosting the judge
Projecting the 2027 Draft class, Chambliss will have some competition to be a top 50 pick when a top 50 pick in 2026 was all but assured. Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, Darian Mensah, LaNorris Sellers, DJ Lagway, Sam Leavitt, CJ Carr, Jayden Maiava, Brendan Sorsby, and Dylan Raiola could all potentially enter the 2027 NFL Draft.
Chambliss has about a month to acclimate himself back into the Ole Miss program and internally promoted new head coach Pete Golding, which should not be difficult. Before starting the Ole Miss Spring Ball program.
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