How Jannik Sinner's Halle shock loss affects Carlos Alcaraz's World No. 1 chances: Complete breakdown

ATP World No. 1 Jannik Sinner lost to Alexander Bublik in the second round of the Halle Open last Thursday, June 19. Sinner, who had won the tournament in 2024, thus failed to defend his title and will lose 500 ranking points as a result. Hence, his total points will be (10880-500) 10380.

Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner's rival and the current world No. 2, has 8850 ranking points at the moment. Thus, there is a gap of almost 1500 points between the two.

How will Carlos Alcaraz doing well at Queen's Club affect his ranking?

Alcaraz is currently playing at the HSBC Championship at Queen's Club in London. He beat Jaume Munar in the round of 16 in a gripping three-setter to book a place in the quarterfinals, where he will face Arthur Rinderknech of France. Alcaraz had lost in the round of 16 at Queen's Club last year, which means that he had 50 ranking points to defend in the tournament this year.

The 22-year-old Spaniard has already reached the quarterfinals this time, which means that he is assured of gaining 50 (100-50) ranking points even if he loses in his quarterfinal match. It will take his tally to 8900 ranking points.

Should he win his next match and reach the semifinals, and then lose, he will stand to gain 150 (200-50) ranking points. It will take him to 9000, still almost 1300 points short of Sinner.

Reaching the final and losing in it will earn the Spaniard 330 points, and he will thereby gain 280 (330-50) ranking points. It will take his tally to 9130 (8850 +280) points. That means that Jannik Sinner will still be ahead of him by almost 1200 points.

Lastly, if Alcaraz goes on to win the tournament and earn all 500 points, his tally will be (8850+500-50) 9300 points, which will be around 1000 short of Sinner's tally.

Winning Wimbledon will be crucial for both Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz has won Wimbledon in each of the last two years and hence, will have 2000 points to defend this year. Jannik Sinner lost in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year, which means that he will have 400 ranking points to defend.

That is a significant difference, and hence, Sinner will have very little to lose. Alcaraz, meanwhile, will have everything to play for, and his inability to win the tournament will take him back in the race for the ATP No. 1 spot.

Edited by Anisha Chatterjee