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After years of record-breaking appreciation, the market is starting to come back down to earth in some areas where houses are beginning to lose value.
While sellers may not welcome the shift, it could finally bring some financial relief to would-be homebuyers who’ve found affordability out of reach in recent years.
Realtor.com® economists assessed the country’s 100 largest metros to find the 10 experiencing the greatest year-over-year median home value losses.
North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL came in first, with Florida accounting for 6 of the top 10 metro areas.
“Florida has seen significant market cooling and strong inventory growth, which has driven prices down as the supply of homes for sale outpaces demand,” says Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com.
“The ancillary costs of homeownership in Florida—like insurance, maintenance, and HOA fees—are also high and growing, which keeps buyers sidelined.”
1. North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL
Median listing price: $478,800
Median year-over-year value change: -8.6%, or -$36,423
“Parts of Sarasota saw home prices shoot way up during the [COVID-19] pandemic,” says real estate agent and investor Ron Myers, of Ron Buys Florida Homes. “People were moving fast, bidding high, and many bought sight unseen just to lock something down. Those prices weren’t really sustainable long-term. Now that interest rates are up and monthly payments are higher, demand has slowed.”
2. Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL
Median listing price: $399,900
Median year-over-year value change: -7.9%, or -$29,393
“Many people who moved here during the pandemic had to go back to the office and move out of Florida, at a time where rates have gone up and stayed up,” says Katrina Allison, real estate broker and owner of Absolute Equity Realty Group in Fort Myers. “So everyone seems in limbo to buy, even though the rates could be worse and are never going to be 2% again.”
3. Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos, TX
Median listing price: $479,000
Median year-over-year value change: -6.1%, or -$26,970
“Austin was a pandemic-era boomtown that saw prices shoot up in 2021 and 2022 that are now coming back down,” says Berner. “New construction is part of the story, as builders responded to the spike in demand by building lots of new homes in this metro, and now that existing-home inventory has rebounded as well, supply exceeds demand. The still-high prices are keeping buyers out of the market for now, which is why demand seems low.”
4. Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL
Median listing price: $339,900
Median year-over-year value change: -4.4%, or -$13,614
“As a cash buyer, I’m seeing more motivated sellers in Florida willing to take a discount just to avoid the fallout of last-minute cancellations or holding costs piling up,” says Myers. “The value drop isn’t necessarily because the homes are bad. It’s the combination of rising costs, tighter financing, and the market cooling off after a very hot run.”
5. Stockton–Lodi, CA
Median listing price: $586,900
Median year-over-year value change: -4.4%, or -$22,164
“There is no longer a shortage of homes for sale in this California metro,” says Berner, “so the upward pressure on prices has been released in a way that it hasn’t in other parts of the country.”
6. Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach, FL
Median listing price: $384,000
Median year-over-year value change: -4.4%, or -$14,351
“Many Florida buyers just can’t afford the same price that they could in 2021 or 2022,” says Myers. “On top of that, rising insurance premiums and HOA fees are making certain Florida homes, especially condos, even harder to sell. In some deals I’ve worked on, insurance alone has killed the buyer’s loan approval after they were already under contract.”
7. Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater, FL
Median listing price: $400,000
Median year-over-year value change: -4.2%, or -$14,707
“After the pandemic, Florida got hit hardest because we had some of the fastest growth, and now the correction is balancing that out,” says Myers.
8. Jacksonville, FL
Median listing price: $389,000
Median year-over-year value change: -3.3%, or -$11,376
Real estate agent Kati Spaniak, of eXp Realty, says Jacksonville is dealing with intense competition from new construction.
“Builders are flooding the market and providing huge incentives like rate buydowns and closing costs that the resale homes cannot compete with,” she explains.
9. Denver–Aurora–Centennial, CO
Median listing price: $579,000
Median year-over-year value change: -3.3%, or -$18,261
“Denver’s value loss is due to the inventory skyrocketing relative to pre-pandemic levels,” says Colorado real estate agent Andrew Fortune, of Great Colorado Homes. “This sudden increase in available homes, especially in the suburbs and luxury tiers, means buyers gain all the leverage. Sellers who bought during the 2021 frenzy must now accept a lower offer or a price concession.”
Fortune says condos and townhomes are seeing prices drop due to rising HOA and insurance costs.
“The market is not collapsing, but it is correcting to match affordability,” he adds.
10. San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, CA
Median listing price: $915,000
Median year-over-year value change: -3.1%, or -$30,336
“In San Francisco, inventory has rebounded to even higher than pre-pandemic levels,” according to Berner. This shift is putting downward pressure on home prices.
Julie Taylor is a reporter for Realtor.com. She was most recently a writer and co-executive producer on “The Talk” where she won two Daytime Emmy Awards. A member of the Writers Guild of America, Julie has written for Cosmopolitan, Glamour, and Redbook magazines and is the author of six books. Julie earned a B.A. in magazine journalism from the University of Central Oklahoma. After two decades in New York City and Los Angeles, she recently relocated to the Midwest.
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