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7 hours ago
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Are the San Diego Padres legitimate World Series contenders? One set of statistics says so.
Neil Paine of the Athletic went through every World Series champion since 1998 to find what they all have in common. What he found was three statistical metrics that at least 24 of the last 26 champs all had in common.
The Padres are one of the five teams that fit the criteria, along with the Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and Chicago Cubs. Those metrics are:
1. Rank among the top 13 in 2 of these 3 categories
- Win percentage (Padres are 10th)
- Run differential (Padres are 13th)
- Wins above replacement
2. Rank among the top 17 in OBP (Padres are 17th) or top 11 in slugging
3. Rank among the top 11 in opponent batting average (Padres are 4th) or top 16 in WHIP (Padres are 10th)
4. Rank among the top 13 in quality starts or fewest meltdowns (Padres are 13th)
5. Check at least four of these five
- Top 11 in lowest BABIP allowed (Padres are 6th)
- Top 20 in batting clutch (Padres are 17th)
- Top 20 in fewest HR/9 allowed (Padres are 8th)
- Top 25 in lowest batting strikeout rate (Padres are 3rd)
- Top 25 in speed score (Padres are 13th)
Each of these thresholds must be cleared by the halfway point in the season, which is quickly approaching.
Right now, the Padres are barely meeting these thresholds. They could still have some room for improvement, and should they make a few savvy moves at the trade deadline to improve their roster, the stats say they should have a chance at winning the whole thing.
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