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PROTARAS, Cyprus — Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be attempting to activate terrorist “sleeper cells” across the West as he repeatedly makes inflammatory statements rejecting President Trump’s calls for surrender, Middle East experts say.
As Iran is increasingly squeezed by Israel — losing far more than the Jewish state has in the nearly week-old war — Henry Jackson Society research fellow Barak Seener warned Wednesday that Khamenei may be seeking to awaken terrorist Iranian sympathizers across the world as he runs out of traditional resources.
“The very fact now that the Iranian regime is volatile, it’s targeted, and it’s highly vulnerable — that’s what actually makes it increasingly dangerous to the West, in that it has nothing to lose it has this about this sense of nihilism, and it affects the rational calculus,” Seener said during a call with reporters hosted the America-Middle East Press Association.
Khamenei on Wednesday rejected Trump’s demands that Tehran give up its nuclear program, calling the president’s demands “absurd rhetoric” while refusing to back down.
“The US entering in this matter is 100% to its own detriment,” he said.
“The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter.”
However, Iran is rapidly running low on ballistic missiles and missile launchers, making it exceedingly difficult for Tehran to follow through on any conventional threat to the United States, Israeli military experts say.
What’s more, Israel has effectively defeated Tehran’s proxy groups — such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, leaving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps relatively alone in its fight, Seener said.
“The very fact that Hamas and Hezbollah are sitting this one out is also a humiliation to Iran,” he said.
“They don’t have their proxies to insulate them, which they have previously had.”
“These proxies have been significantly degraded, opening the skies directly for Israel to get to Tehran. And as a result of that, where can the IRGC flex? The only place where it can really flex now is the international community to potentially activate sleeper cells and to conduct malign activities at an even greater capacity than it had beforehand.”
However, it’s unclear how much capability Tehran would retain if Israel manages to end the IRGC’s core components and officials.
The Israel Defense Force killed IRGC commander Hossein Salami on Friday, though he was later replaced by former Iranian Minister of the Interior, Ahmad Vahidi.
“To what end does it have its ability to activate its sleeper cells or IRGC networks internationally, if the IRGC is command and control has been decapitated? Who gives the orders? Is somebody willing to put themselves on the line to conduct a terrorist activity, if they may not even get paid for it, right?” Seener said.
“I mean, these are all questions.”
“Though perhaps contingency measures have been created where malign activities can go on unaffected,” he added.
English (US)