Has Muhurat trading set the tone for a bullish Samvat 2082?

Mumbai: India's benchmark indices began Samvat 2082 on a positive note, closing higher for the fifth straight session at the end of the special one-hour Muhurat trading on Tuesday. This new year will deliver double-digit returns, compared with the subdued performance of the past one, aided by ample liquidity, consumption growth and hopes of a resolution of tariff-related issues, experts said.

In addition, given strong buildup of short positions by foreign investors, a short-covering rally cannot be ruled out in the near term, said market observers.

After gaining over 0.4% IN the Muhurat session, the Nifty finished at 25,868.60, up 0.1% or 25.45 points. The Sensex ended at 84,426.34, 0.1% or 62.97 points higher. Both indices gained close to 3% over the past week.

"Returns of 10-12% are expected from Diwali to Diwali, which is much higher than muted returns in Samvat 2081," said A Balasubramanian, managing director and chief executive, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC.

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Tariffs a Big Factor

"The gains are likely to be led by consumption growth, a pickup in credit growth due to interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and a positive surprise on the tariff negotiation front," Balasubramanian added. He said there's a high possibility of a constructive outcome from tariff negotiations with the US.

The Sensex and the Nifty have gained 5.9% and 6.4%, respectively, since last Diwali. The Nifty Midcap 150 index advanced 4.5% while the Nifty Smallcap 250 index tumbled 3.6% in this period.

During Tuesday's special session, the Nifty Midcap150 index rose 0.2% while the Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced 0.7%. Of the 4,178 traded stocks on BSE, 3,023 advanced, while 954 declined. Cipla emerged as the top gainer on the NSE and rose 1.6% on Tuesday. Bajaj Finserv advanced 1.2% while Infosys, JSW Steel and Grasim Industries moved 0.7% higher.

"Stronger Q2 earnings would signal economic recovery and drive stock-specific rallies, while a robust monsoon would boost rural consumption across FMCG, auto, and consumer durable sectors," said Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO, HDFC Securities. He said improving corporate performance is likely to attract foreign institutional investor (FII) flows back to India, bolstering local equities further.

Overseas investors bought shares worth ₹2,176.4 crore in October, after selling equities worth over ₹1 lakh crore since June. In eight of the past 12 months, global investors have been net sellers of Indian stocks.

According to Balasubramanian, while the quantum may be debatable, foreign inflows are likely after a favourable tariff outcome in November. "Since there is a strong short buildup on the FII side, a short-covering rally is anticipated that could propel Nifty higher by around 3,000 points in the next six to 12 months," he said.

The Sensex and Nifty reached record highs of 85,836.12 and 26,216.05, respectively, at the end of September 2024. Both indices are about 1.5% away from those record levels.

Relli pointed out that easing global interest rates will make India more attractive to yield-seeking investors, potentially triggering a renewed surge in capital inflows. "We expect Indian markets to deliver low double-digit returns in the current Samvat as we expect 9% aggregate earnings growth for FY26 followed by mid-teens growth in FY27," he said.

For Balasubramanian, a record rally in the bullion market, which took gold and silver prices to new peaks, may see profit booking, helping equities. "Exceptional returns are not expected from either of the precious metals. Equity is expected to outperform in the next one year," he said. Between the two, silver may appreciate more, he added.

The trading community actively participates in the Muhurat session at the time of Diwali, making token transactions with an intent to take home profits. Making money in this hour of trading is considered auspicious, setting the tone for the year to come.

The market is shut on Wednesday.