Grid Woes Push UK Clean Power Goal Back Five Years, Report Shows

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(Bloomberg) — The UK will probably miss its clean electricity target by five years because of capacity constraints on its grid and could struggle to deliver on promises to cut household energy bills, according to consultant LCP Delta.

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About 83% of all power should come from clean sources by 2030, short of the government’s goal of 95%, with that milestone now unlikely to be hit until 2035, LCP Delta said in a report. A huge amounts of renewable energy — enough to power millions of homes — is set to be lost because it can’t flow to where it’s needed, prompting gas-fired plants to be turned up to fill the gap.

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The warning underscores one the biggest challenges facing Britain’s energy transition. While renewables output is rapidly expanding, there hasn’t been enough investment in the network to handle the extra flows and insufficient battery capacity to store excess power. That’s limiting how much electricity can actually be used and making it harder to curb fossil-fuel use and lower consumers’ bills.

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While lower wholesale prices should be good news for bills, that saving will be offset by costs of upgrading and balancing the grid, as well as state subsidies to support renewable projects, both of which are passed onto consumers. As a result, a typical annual bill should be little changed by 2030, compared with the Labour Party’s campaign pledge to cut them by £300 ($398), LCP Delta said.

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“A cleaner power system means lower reliance on gas, helping to shield households from the kind of price volatility seen during recent energy crises,” said Sam Hollister, head of UK market strategy at LCP Delta. He said the government can take steps to accelerate renewable deployment, tackle grid constraints and unlock the full benefits of clean power.

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In a separate statement, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said that the LCP Delta report “overlooks the impact of the decisive action we have taken to deliver the clean power mission.”

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The LCP Delta report did point to areas of significant progress, projecting gas-fired generation will fall 38% by 2030, halving liquefied natural gas imports. Still, without more government intervention, offshore and onshore wind, solar and batteries are all expected to miss targets.

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“We’re running out of time to get the amount of offshore wind procured, installed and operational to meet the Clean Power 2030 target,” Hollister said. Even contracts awarded for projects in a renewable energy auction later this year would face an “incredibly challenging” timeline to be up and running by 2030, he said.

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LCP Delta has previously carried out modeling for the government, including studies on long-duration electricity storage and electricity market reform.

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