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(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees global oil demand growth rising for longer than previously expected on robust energy demand, just days after the International Energy Agency tempered its stance on an imminent peak.
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Oil demand will grow to 113 million barrels a day in 2040, up from 103.5 million in 2024, analysts Yulia Grigsby and Daan Struyven wrote in a note on Thursday. The bank last year predicted a peak by 2034, but also flagged the potential for growth topping out six years later on slow electric-vehicle adoption.
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Goldman cited low-carbon technology and infrastructure bottlenecks, along with the gain in energy demand, for the revised outlook on peak growth. The bank said petrochemicals will become the key driver of oil consumption after a long plateau from road transport, with strong a contribution from aviation.
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The IEA this week reinstated a scenario in which global demand keeps growing to the middle of the century due to the slower adoption of EV vehicles. The Paris-based group made the forecast in its World Energy Outlook 2025.
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“We do not assume major breakthroughs in low-carbon technology,” Goldman’s analysts wrote. “Even for peaking road oil demand, we expect a long plateau after 2030,” and trucks powered by liquefied natural gas are unlikely to take off outside of China, they added.
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Still, Goldman cautioned that long-run oil demand forecasts are highly uncertain and tend to be revised significantly, citing risks from faster progress in low-carbon technology and the lingering impact from potential recessions.
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