Goldman Flags Up Oil Surplus Even as Nations Rebuild Stockpiles

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(Bloomberg) — The global oil market is set to swing back into oversupply as the impact of the Iran war fades and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

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While purchases of crude to replenish strategic reserves are expected to tighten the global market to some extent, they would only partially offset the anticipated glut, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

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“Once we have a normalization of flows through the strait, the expectation is that we go into an oversupply,” Dart said, adding that the surplus is expected to average just over 3 million barrels a day next year. 

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“We do expect a little over 1 million barrels a day just of SPR rebuilding globally, but still, that would leave us close to 2 million barrels a day of a surplus,” she added, referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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Benchmark crude prices collapsed by almost 30% last quarter — wiping out all of the gains from the conflict — as the US and Iran struck an interim peace deal and shipping through the waterway began to pick up. During the initial weeks of the crisis, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from rich nations’ emergency reserves in a bid to contain prices and ensure supplies. Those holdings now need to be rebuilt. 

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As part of the drive, the Trump administration tapped the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation’s emergency cache of crude. Those stockpiles sank from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million as of June 19, according to official figures. That’s the lowest level since 1983.

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Goldman Sachs’ expectation that surplus conditions are set to return tallies with the view from Morgan Stanley, which has cut price forecasts twice in a little over two weeks. “As attention turns to 2027, the market has come full circle – back to surplus,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note this week.

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Crossings through Hormuz — the waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets — have continued to pick up despite attacks on two vessels in recent days. Iran, meanwhile, has reiterated a determination to control maritime traffic through the conduit, possibly in conjunction with Oman.

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Asked about a proposal to impose transit fees on vessels, Goldman’s Dart said companies were less concerned about the cost than regulatory uncertainty. 

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“When I talk to shipping companies, the main thing they say is: ‘I don’t mind paying a toll, as long as there’s clarity on the rules’,” she said, referring to the need to avoid running afoul of US sanctions.

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An informal toll that had previously been discussed amounted to about $1 a barrel, a cost that isn’t materially different from the normal, day-to-day volatility in oil prices, she said.  

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“Is it going to really significantly increase energy costs? That’s not obvious,” Dart said. “When I talk to shippers, that was the impression I got from them.”

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—With assistance from Tim Stenovec.

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