Goldman, Barclays Strategists Raise Targets for European Stocks

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(Bloomberg) — The US-Iran peace deal has brightened the outlook for European stocks in the second half and prompted several strategists to increase their year-end targets, according to a Bloomberg survey.

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA all raised their forecasts. While the latest 16-strong poll shows the Stoxx Europe 600 Index will finish 2026 at 640 points, matching the latest all-time highs, parts of the market have yet to bounce back to prewar prices. This creates scope for gains as investors position for recovery through rotation, some participants said.

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“Index-level performance masks a more uneven recovery beneath the surface, with many sectors and individual stocks still trading below their pre-conflict levels,” said Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup Inc.

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This setup creates the potential for “a second phase of recovery, marked by increased rotation and broader market participation,” Manthey said. As investors seek out opportunities, she still expects the artificial intelligence theme to remain the dominant driver, with strong earnings and spending growth sustaining its momentum.

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Brent oil prices have been falling fast because of the interim US-Iran agreement and are at their lowest levels since early March. That’s allowing central banks to hold off for now on raising borrowing costs to counter inflation.

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“Macro challenges remain plenty, but the reduced tail risk of a persistent oil/rate shock should clear the way for the broadening trade to resume, with positioning still largely skewed toward the tech-heavy US market,” wrote Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau. They boosted their Stoxx 600 target by 50 points to 670, joining HSBC Holdings Plc as the biggest bulls in the survey in expecting nearly 5% upside.  

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The Barclays strategists kept their preferred focus on AI investment winners and banks, but see catch-up potential for consumer stocks, particularly the luxury sector, which is a candidate for a short squeeze should bearish bets against the cohort need to be quickly unwound, they said. 

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At Goldman Sachs, the team led by Peter Oppenheimer expects some improvement “at the margin.” In an environment of weak growth and continued uncertainty, investors should favor structural themes with durable earnings visibility, they said. 

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These include tech, banks, aerospace, defense, renewables, along with heavy-asset and low-obsolescence names, the so-called HALO stocks. On the other hand, they advise remaining underweight autos and chemicals given ongoing margin pressures and exposure to competition from China.

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Overall, the range of forecasts in the Bloomberg survey has remained wide, but as the mood becomes more optimistic, bears have turned less bearish. SocGen raised its target to 600 from 580, leaving TFS as the most pessimistic, forecasting an 8.5% drop to 585 points.