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Mitch Marner returns to Toronto on Friday.
NHLI via Getty Images
The eyes of the NHL will be fixated on Friday night’s match between the Vegas Golden Knights and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Mitch Marner, a Toronto-born playmaker whose name is all over the Maple Leafs’ record books, will play his first game in his hometown since he signed with the Vegas Golden Knights this summer.
The atmosphere is getting all the headlines, but this is a pivotal game for the Leafs as they try to stay within touching distance of the wild-card chase before the Olympic break.
Vegas is a -125 favorite despite playing for the second night in a row.
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs odds, prediction
The Golden Knights are in a tough schedule spot after playing in Boston on Thursday night, but it’s Toronto that limps into this contest.
The Leafs will be without William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Chris Tanev on Friday, and Brandon Carlo’s status was doubtful ahead of morning skate.
A depleted blueline for an already pedestrian defensive team is not a recipe for success against the Golden Knights.
Vegas, on the other hand, has bolstered its ranks by adding Rasmus Andersson in a trade with the Calgary Flames.
The smooth-skating Swede joins a deep, rangy blueline that has posted some of the best defensive metrics this season.
The only problem is that those defensive metrics have been spoiled by poor goaltending. The Knights currently rank 28th in the league with an .879 save percentage.
Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs. NHLI via Getty ImagesVegas’ goaltending woes are concerning in this matchup, and enough to keep me away from laying -125 on the road, but that’s OK, because this one is all about Marner.
It’s best not to get too caught up in narratives when handicapping any game, but hockey is an effort sport.
You can imagine that the Golden Knights, and Marner, will have their legs for this one, as it’s been a media circus ever since these two teams played in Vegas last week.
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They’ll also be looking to set Marner up at every opportunity, providing the former Leaf with plenty of chances to silence what should be a hostile crowd.
Getting better than +200 on Marner to score feels like great value.
The Leafs are banged up, especially on defense, and they’ve hit a bit of a rut over the last handful of games.
There will be plenty of looks for the Knights, and more than a couple should land on Marner’s stick. And while he’s more of a passer than a shooter, you can feel pretty certain that he’ll be quick on the trigger finger tonight.
The Play: Mitch Marner to score 1+ goals (+220) | Marner 3+ goals (100/1, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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