Gold-mining stocks set to erase 2026 gains as rate-cut bets fade

While lower gold prices would weigh on revenue, the large mining firms will likely be cushioned by the big runup in the metal in recent years, analysts say. Photo by Handout/Barrick Mining Corp.

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The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index fell as much as 10 per cent on Thursday to the lowest level since December. The index, which includes companies from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, is on pace to end the day down about two per cent in 2026. It was up as much 35 per cent on March 2, the first trading day after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and as Iran retaliated.

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The metal has declined about 13 per cent since the start of the war as costlier energy risks sparking inflation and making it harder for central banks to reduce borrowing costs. That poses a risk for bullion, which performs better when rates are lower since it offers no yield. Traders no longer see Federal Reserve policy easing this year and some are hedging for a potential hike.

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“For now, investor attention is on margins and the potential double whammy of lower gold prices and higher energy/consumable costs,” Christopher Lafemina, an analyst at Jefferies LLC, wrote in a note to clients. “In a prolonged conflict scenario, it’s possible to see more pressure on gold from higher rate expectations and a stronger U.S. dollar.”

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The other force working against gold in recent weeks is that the U.S. dollar has emerged as a key haven during the conflict, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gaining two per cent since the end of February. Bullion is priced in dollars, so the precious metal has become relatively more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

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Gold-mining stocks saw large inflows in 2025, when the Bloomberg dollar index sank about eight per cent. Bullion gained 65 per cent last year and hit a series of record highs. Newmont Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Barrick Mining Corp. all rose over 115 per cent in 2025 — the type of gains that are usually expected more from speculative assets than a metal seen as a haven. Now with the war dragging on, some investors are dumping the stocks.

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“When volatility hits, the market sells anything liquid, and miners are liquid,” Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management, wrote in a note to clients. “Add the fear that oil stays high, and you get a fast, ugly unwind — even in companies that are still printing cash.”

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Barrick is expected to see annual earnings growth of 55 per cent this year, while Agnico Eagle is projected to register a 72 per cent year-over-year increase, according to analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Both companies are based in Toronto.

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While lower gold prices would weigh on revenue, the large mining firms will likely be cushioned by the big runup in the metal in recent years, analysts say.

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After all, since the end of 2023, bullion prices have soared more than 120 per cent, a major tailwind for the index of gold miners, which has gained more than 170 per cent in that  period.

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If oil prices stabilize and pressure from interest rates and the dollar eases, miners with net cash, lower costs and high-quality assets like Newmont and Agnico Eagle will likely rebound, Tuttle wrote.

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