Gold Holds Steady as Progress on Hormuz Trims Rate-Hike Bets

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(Bloomberg) — Gold traded in a narrow range, as the prospect of an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation concerns and reduced the odds of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

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Bullion edged lower to near $4,070 an ounce, after adding 0.6% in the previous session. Qatar said a proposal had been drafted to help normalize commercial shipping via Hormuz, and both US and Iranian officials signaled progress in talks to reopen the key waterway for energy flows. Oil fell for a third day on optimism that a deal can be reached.

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Markets are now fully pricing in one rate hike by year-end, down from two as recently as last week. Less monetary tightening is generally positive for gold, which generates no yield.

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Fed officials opted to keep rates unchanged for the fifth straight time when they met last week, although three dissenters favored a hike. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who voted with the majority, said in an essay Tuesday that she was “keeping an open mind” on the future direction of policy as there were conflicting signs on whether it’s restrictive enough.

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“Gold is the liquidity sponge of the macro complex, and it’s one of the first things to get hit on any whiff of rate-tightening risk, structural or headline,” Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS Pamp Inc., said in a note.

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Gold has fallen by more than a fifth since the US-Iran war began in late February. The conflict has sent energy prices soaring, stoked inflationary pressures and raised the likelihood that interest rates will stay higher for longer. In recent weeks, however, support for bullion has emerged from Chinese institutional investors, who have helped to arrest the war-led decline and keep prices above the key $4,000-an-ounce support threshold.

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Gold-backed exchange-traded funds in China saw 14 straight days of inflows up to Monday, the longest streak since March, according to calculations by Bloomberg. That points to a shift in sentiment in the world’s biggest bullion market after a long stretch of outflows and price declines.

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Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,069.41 an ounce as of 7:45 a.m. in Singapore. Silver was 0.2% lower at $59.43 an ounce. Platinum and palladium were little changed. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was flat after ending the previous session down 0.1%.

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