Global power demand surge puts net zero by 2050 out of reach as world heads toward 2.6°C warming, says Wood Mackenzie

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CCUS, Hydrogen and Advanced Bioenergy Fill Critical Gaps
Advanced technologies are emerging as critical enablers for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, long-haul transport, and legacy fossil infrastructure. While facing barriers of scale, cost, and capital, these technologies are essential for comprehensive decarbonisation where electrification falls short. In net zero pathways, these technologies can deliver 20% to 30% of total emissions reductions: the difference between incremental progress and comprehensive decarbonisation.

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Connecting energy ecosystems
The report concludes that the energy transition is evolving as it enters a more mature and stress-tested phase, facing hard trade-offs of scale, system integration capital allocation and geopolitics.

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“Viewing the energy system as interconnected is more critical than ever because electrification, flexibility and decarbonisation link markets that once stood apart,” said Sharma. “Oil, gas, coal and power can no longer operate in silos: EV adoption shifts electricity demand, gas shortages ripple into power and heating, and investment in shared infrastructure like transmission lines, pipelines and storage affects multiple sectors at once.

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“Geopolitical shocks or resource constraints in one fuel cascade across others, while technologies such as hydrogen, CCUS and biofuels rely on cheap renewables and common infrastructure. Treating energy carriers as separate markets risks missing the synergies and vulnerabilities that define the transition.​”

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The report comes as countries prepare nationally determined contributions ahead of COP30, with nearly half of global emissions now covered by 2035 climate pledges.

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– ENDS –

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EDITOR’S NOTES

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About Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook analysis
Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook report (part of our Lens Energy Transition Scenarios) maps four distinct energy transition pathways with increasing levels of ambition, including the role of emerging technologies and investment opportunities. They are our independent assessment of what it would take to deliver on countries’ announced net zero pledges and potential outcomes for the planet.

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You can read more information here and a copy of the analysis is available on request.

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Definition of scenarios:
Base case – Wood Mackenzie’s base case view across all commodity and technology business units – our central, most likely outcome calls for a 2.6 C trajectory.
Country pledges scenario – Wood Mackenzie’s scenario on how country pledges may be implemented in the future. The 2˚C trajectory aligns with the upper temp limit from the Paris Agreement.
Net zero 2050 scenario – Wood Mackenzie’s scenario on how a 1.5˚C world may play out over the next 35 years. Carbon emissions align with the most ambitious goal of the 2015 ​Paris Agreement.
Delayed transition scenario – Assumes a five-year delay to global decarbonisation efforts due to geopolitics and reduced policy support to new technologies, resulting in a 3.1 ˚C degree trajectory.

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Charts:

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For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie’s media relations team:

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ENDS

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For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie’s media relations team:

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About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the global insight business for renewables, energy and natural resources. Driven by data. Powered by people. In the middle of an energy revolution, businesses and governments need reliable and actionable insight to lead the transition to a sustainable future. That’s why we cover the entire supply chain with unparalleled breadth and depth, backed by over 50 years’ experience in natural resources. Today, our team of over 2,000 experts operate across 30 global locations, inspiring customers’ decisions through real-time analytics, consultancy, events and thought leadership. Together, we deliver the insight they need to separate risk from opportunity and make bold decisions when it matters most. For more information, visit woodmac.com

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