Global Long Bond Yields Climb to Highest in Almost Two Decades

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(Bloomberg) — The selloff in longer-maturity government bonds has pushed up yields to levels last seen during the global financial crisis, and strategists are warning the losses have room to run. 

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The surge in global inflation expectations driven by rising oil prices has seen Bloomberg’s gauge of the average yield-to-maturity on sovereign debt due a decade or longer climb to the highest since July 2008. Crude costs have powered ahead as the war in Iran has choked off the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.

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“We’re seeing a broader repricing of duration driven by fiscal realities, persistent inflation risks and some political uncertainty, as well as a more demanding investor base,” said Patrick Coffey, head of a research group at Barclays Plc in London. “It’s hard to point to a near-term catalyst outside of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that could fully reverse the current selloff.”

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Global bond yields have surged in recent weeks on concern the jump in energy costs will feed into everything from plastic bottles for soda to gasoline for tractors needed to harvest crops. Add in worries over government spending in Japan, the UK and the US, as well as an artificial intelligence boom supporting growth in the world’s biggest economy, and investors have been seeking greater compensation to own longer-maturity debt.

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Yields on US 30-year Treasuries have jumped almost 60 basis points since the start of the Iran war to reach 5.20%, its highest level since July 2007. Similar tenor debt in the UK has climbed to the highest since 1998 as a political crisis envelops the gilt market, overtaking Australia to become the highest-yielder among developed markets. 

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“I do think chances are high for 10-year US yields to break through the 4.75% next,”said Monica Hsiao, chief investment officer at Triada Capital Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The main issue is longer term oil prices and the war not seeing a way to off-ramp into peace.”

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In addition to Iran headlines, heavy bond issuance and term premium repricing, technicals are also driving declines with algorithms on overdrive on systematic selling, she said.

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What Bloomberg Strategists Say…

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“With conviction low in bonds, 5.25% is the next near-term target for US 30-year Treasury yields.”

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Alyce Andres, Markets Live strategist

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The slide in bonds has helped erase returns for investors who anticipated the global central bank easing cycle would have continued this year. The gauge of global bond returns that mature in a decade or later has slumped 4.6% in 2026. It was up about 3% for the year at the end of February when the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran.

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The bond declines point to a realization that inflation may be sticky and policymakers may turn more hawkish, according to Eugene Leow, a senior rates strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore. Economic optimism from sizable capital expenditures in the private sector could also be helping push yield expectations higher, he wrote in a research note.

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“In any case, the bias to global yields remain to the upside in the immediate term,” he said.

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—With assistance from David Finnerty.

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