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Perhaps last week’s stunning 33-32 collapse to Denver — where the Giants led 19-0 in the fourth quarter — has everyone holding their breath.
Only two weeks after upsetting the Eagles 34-14 as seven-point ‘dogs on home turf, the Giants find themselves catching 6.5 points in the rematch. It was that game where Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo shined to show Giants fans the first hope they’ve seen in the Brian Dabboll era, combining to score four collective touchdowns and power the offense to 366 yards.
According to public betting reports, there’s slight love leaning on the Birds, and I think there are several reasons for this.
Philadelphia responded by topping the Vikings last week and snapping a two-game losing streak, so we have recency bias. But let’s remember if Jude McAtamney doesn’t miss two extra points in the Giants’ loss, we’d likely have had a different result.
Giants vs. Eagles odds, prediction
Yes, I’m still acknowledging the fact that the Giants allowed three consecutive scoring drives in under three minutes. They abandoned their blitz-heavy identity for soft zone coverage, executed poor clock management and missed critical tackles. Bo Nix said, “thank you very much.”
Tough mistakes, but there are still kinks to iron out with this green Giants group. Still, Big Blue led in possession and first- and third-down conversion, went 2-for-2 in the red zone and Dart tossed 283 yards for three scores. This was against the league’s arguable best defense.
Then we have the optics. The Eagles lead the division at 5-2 while the Giants’ loss sunk them to last place at 2-5. It’s the narrative of the defending Super Bowl champions coming back for redemption at home against an inferior team that just shut them out in the second half.
If you want to play the narrative angle, the Giants’ emotional loss to Denver could have just as much of an impact on the team’s appetite here. This Dart-Skattebo tandem is ascending and unpredictable as the locker room has rallied around it.
Saquon Barkley looks to improve from a frustrated performance against the Giants two weeks ago. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectSkattebo’s seeming addiction to using his head as a battering ram has transformed the Giants’ rushing game; they are No. 2 overall in first downs by rushing. It’s rare to say this about a Nick Sirianni team, but the Giants out-physicaled the Eagles all night at the line of scrimmage.
The “Arm & Hammer” duo have energized the Giants to a top-10 rank in adjusted EPA per play.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 23rd in DVOA with the fifth-lowest pressure rate — a far cry from what got them a ring.
Saquon Barkley was dust in the wind against the Giants. He has regressed significantly since his historic campaign last season, averaging 2.5 fewer yards per carry. Big Blue had answers for its former member at every turn with interior control and disciplined gap play.
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Not to mention the Eagles will be without their lead receiver in A.J. Brown on Sunday.
The Giants defense is still a problem; it’s bottom 10 in both points allowed and EPA per play, but Philly’s inconsistency leaves the backdoor wide open. The Birds have yet to win by more than a touchdown.
The last reason I can detect for this perception is all this talk about how the Giants haven’t won in Philadelphia since 2013. As far as those kinds of trends go, it’s all barbershop talk in my book.
The play: Giants +7.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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