Germany Expects Slight GDP Growth This Year, Upswing From 2026

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 Krisztian Bocsi/BloombergThe national flag of Germany flies above the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany, on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025. A bill aims to reduce irregular immigration and give federal police more powers to carry out deportations, but has been denounced by the ruling Social Democrats and Greens as unconstitutional. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Photo by Krisztian Bocsi /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The German government is set to raise its economic forecasts, bringing official projections into line with those of the country’s leading research institutes, people familiar with the matter said on Saturday.

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Economy Minister Katherina Reiche will flag 0.2% growth for 2025 in her autumn projections next week, said the people, who declined to be identified ahead of the presentation. That compares with a forecast by the previous administration for no growth at all.

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For 2026, the ministry now anticipates 1.3% growth, expanding to 1.4% in 2027, the people said. The revised figures match estimates by the country’s leading research institutes published last month.

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Germany is set for a rebound thanks to rapid fiscal expansion, but the boost will prove temporary unless the government addresses underlying issues, the advisers warned at the time.

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Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is trying to engineer a recovery in Europe’s biggest economy after an agreement to spend hundreds of billions of euros on infrastructure and defense investments. While that’s lifted the mood among companies, there’s rising demand for more fundamental reforms. 

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Since the pandemic, but especially since Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the associated explosion in energy prices, the German economy has been in turmoil. While US tariffs under President Donald Trump have complicated growth efforts, the lack of competitiveness of Germany’s automotive industry — its mainstay — has exposed weaknesses in the country’s broader business model.

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A spokesperson for the economy ministry declined to comment on Saturday. The official numbers are due to be unveiled on Oct. 8.

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Reuters was first to report about the forecast adjustments. 

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