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(Bloomberg) — Franklin Templeton Chief Executive Officer Jenny Johnson said the US-Iran conflict is unlikely to go beyond around five weeks in the absence of major retaliation within the region.
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“As long as the rest of the Middle East doesn’t retaliate, this is probably a four to five week event,” she said at The Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney on Tuesday. While there are “a lot of moving parts” to the conflict, the likelihood is that it “is actually a shorter-term” event, Johnson said.
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The US has sent conflicting messages about how long a war with Iran might last, with Israel launching new airstrikes on Monday. The Islamic Republic continued to fire missiles around the Middle East in response to the US-Israeli attack, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend and has upended energy markets.
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Johnson did note that markets had been surprised by the duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, as inflation re-emerges as a key worry in the $30 trillion Treasuries market, some investors see the risk of a protracted conflict keeping crude prices elevated.
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“This shock only makes it harder” for policymakers, she said, adding that the trend for the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate remains lower.
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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock told the summit earlier that its rate-setting board is “very alert” to the conflict’s potential implications. Bullock’s remarks were some of the first by a global central bank chief since the strikes on Iran began.
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