Four surprises in California primary results as voters reject status quo

California voters rejected the status quo in Tuesday’s primary, sending Republican Steve Hilton to the top of the leaderboard in the race for governor, and likely forcing LA Mayor Karen Bass into a runoff against challenger Spencer Pratt.

As results stand, the Golden State will have the general election it deserves: a clear contest between bold, fresh new ideas on the one hand, and an entrenched political establishment on the other.

The winds of change blew through downticket races as well. In the race for schools superintendent, for example, conservative Sonja Shaw, who led the battle for parental rights, has surged into the lead.

Here are several other key takeaways.

1. California voters reject new taxes

Voters in California’s three major cities appear to have rejected local tax increases — unexpectedly.

In San Diego, early results showed voters rejecting Measure A, 58%-42%, which would apply a Zohran Mamdani-style tax to vacant second homes.

In San Francisco, voters appeared to be rejecting Measure D, 55% to 45%, which would tax “overpaid CEOs.”

And in LA County, early returns suggested that voters were rejecting Measure ER, 53% to 47%, which would raise sales taxes 0.5%, supposedly to fund health care expenses.

In San Francisco, voters appeared to be rejecting Measure D, 55% to 45%, which would tax “overpaid CEOs.” AFP via Getty Images

It’s not a full-on tax revolt. San Francisco voters also soundly rejected Measure C, 64% to 36%, which would have decreased some business taxes (while increasing others).

But voters are sending a signal: enough is enough.

That, in turn, suggests that the proposed “billionaire tax,” which will appear on the November ballot, could face an uphill battle, even if early polls show it with some support.

2. Tom Steyer’s wasted money

Tom Steyer set a record for spending in a California election, laying out over $200 million in his race for governor.

And it’s all for naught, as he appears to have failed to finish in the top two.

Steyer’s career total spending on failed political causes is close to $1 billion dollars.

He had already spent close to a quarter of a billion on Democratic Party candidates by the time he announced a run for president in 2019.

Tom Steyer’s career total spending on failed political causes is close to $1 billion dollars. AP Photo/Noah Berger

He spent nearly $350 million on that failed campaign, which he abandoned after losing badly in the first four primaries in 2020.

And now he has lost his bet on the California gubernatorial primary.

For all the talk about money in politics, it’s clear that spending more does not guarantee victory. 

You have to have a decent candidate, and a winning message. 

Steyer was a billionaire who attacked billionaires. It didn’t work.

3. The Palisades Fire pushback

The Palisades Fire turned out to be a major factor in the California primary.

Spencer Pratt is the most obvious example. After losing his family home in the fire, Pratt jumped into the LA mayor’s race. He is channeling the outrage of his community — and giving voice to other Angelenos who are irate at the poor state of city services.

There are other races where the Palisades Fire played a role.

a property in Pacific Palisades with graffiti that reads “Fire Mayor Bass” and “They Let Us Burn” seen on April 8. Pedro Colo for CA Post

Ben Allen, who represents Pacific Palisades in the State Senate, appears to have come in second in the primary for state insurance commissioner, meaning he will likely advance to the general election to face San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim.

Traci Park, a fierce advocate for Pacific Palisades in the LA City Council, appears to have won re-election outright, with two-thirds of the vote.

No doubt, the Palisades Fire will remain a powerful theme in the general election as well.

4. Kevin Kiley may beat Prop 50

Governor Gavin Newsom took a victory lap after he convinced the electorate to ratify his gerrymandered congressional map in Proposition 50 last year.

But Representative Kevin Kiley — one of Newsom’s targets for removal — may have the last laugh.

Rather than run against another Republican in a redrawn district, Kiley became an independent and ran in the new 6th district, in the Sacramento suburbs.

Traffic passes a Vote No On Prop. 50 sign along Highway 41 near Avenue 12 on Oct. 28, 2025, just north of Fresno. TNS

Early returns put Kiley on top — and put Republican Michael Stansfield in second place.

That could mean Democrats — split among five candidates — might find themselves completely shut out of the general election.

In that case, Kiley would be favored to win the general election, and to return to Congress — with a new mandate to fight for fair elections, and to hold California’s Democrats accountable.

Prop 50 escalated a redistricting fight that is already hurting Democrats nationwide. To see it falter even in California would be remarkable.

Joel Pollak is Opinion editor of The California Post.