Ford Shares Slide as Outlook Boost Leaves Investors Underwhelmed

Ford F-150 trucks are assembled at the Ford River Rouge Complex in Dearborn, Michigan, in January. Photographer: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Photo by Anna Moneymaker /Photographer: Anna Moneymaker/Ge

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. warned of pressure from an unexpected rise in commodity costs, spooking investors even as the automaker raised its full-year profit outlook on demand for high-margin pickups and SUVs. 

Article content

The company now expects to earn as much as $10.5 billion before interest and taxes this year, up $500 million from its previous forecast. Ford’s first-quarter results also blew past Wall Street’s expectations late Wednesday, with adjusted earnings of 66 cents a share compared with 19 cents expected by analysts.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Yet Ford refrained from raising its full-year profit outlook to the same degree that its first-quarter profit beat estimates, suggesting a cautious view of the year ahead as the Iran war pushes up energy and commodity prices. The company also expects a $2 billion profit hit from rising commodity prices such as steel and aluminum, double what it had anticipated previously, echoing crosstown rival General Motors Co. 

Article content

Article content

The “guidance raise fell short of the beat itself,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in a note. “Part of the muted raise reflects a $1 billion increase in expected commodity headwinds, largely from aluminum — but the rest points to a slightly weaker underlying outlook for the balance of 2026.”

Article content

Ford’s shares fell 4.9% as of 7:58 a.m. Thursday before regular trading in New York. 

Article content

The first-quarter results highlight how Ford’s renewed focus on building high-priced pickups and SUVs is padding profits even as the company is whipsawed by macroeconomic forces.

Article content

Ford Blue, the automaker’s traditional business that includes internal-combustion engine vehicles and gas-electric hybrids, earned $1.94 billion before interest and taxes in the most recent quarter, far more than the $96 million it earned in the year-earlier period. That’s despite Ford’s US vehicle sales falling 8.8% in the first quarter, including a 16% decline in F-Series sales.

Article content

Article content

Ford’s large SUVs such as the Explorer and Expedition are a particular strength, while off-road performance trims account for nearly 25% of the company’s US sales, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House told reporters on Wednesday. 

Article content

“These happen to be pretty high-mix, high-value vehicles,” she said.

Article content

The updated guidance also reflects a $1.3 billion one-time benefit in the first quarter from the Supreme Court’s ruling that overturned many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Ford cautioned that its improved outlook does not factor in a prolonged war with Iran or an economic downturn in the US.

Article content

“Our team is aggressively managing a complex external environment,” House said.

Article content

Despite the good news, Ford said it burned through $1.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow as it spends heavily to set up a new business in energy storage and to produce a $30,000 electric pickup truck coming next year.

Article content

Sales and production of F-Series pickups plunged early this year as fallout continued from last year’s fires at Novelis Inc.’s aluminum mill in New York that provides the raw material for the truck’s body panels. Ford has said the mill won’t be back up until this summer and has warned truck production won’t return to normal until the year’s second half.