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The Folarin Balogun situation just won’t go away.
According to the Group of Copenhagen, an independent international gambling watchdog, the Balogun controversy, in which he was cited for a red card and then had it rescinded by a lone FIFA official, is one of several World Cup events that were flagged in a post-tournament report by the auditor.
According to a report by The Athletic, the Group of Copenhagen has handed out seven “yellow notices” pertaining to the 104-match tournament, which attracted $240 billion in bets, per the group’s findings.
The Group of Copenhagen, which is the sporting integrity arm of the Council of Europe and was established in 2016 to snuff out match-fixing, categorizes events and labels them with a color: Green (normal), yellow (slightly increased alert), orange (increased alert) or red (highest alert).
One of the instances that drew the ire of the ombudsman was the infamous rescinding of Balogun’s red card ahead of Team USA’s match with Belgium in the Round of 16.
It’s important to note that just because a situation has been flagged by the Group of Copenhagen doesn’t mean it is due to match-fixing or manipulation.
According to the Group of Copenhagen, Polymarket allowed users to trade on whether or not Balogun would be allowed to play against Belgium. The market was posted on the same day that the American striker was sent off against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32.
FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee eventually reversed the ban, allowing Balogun to play in the USMNT’s 4-1 loss to Belgium.
Per the report, no other markets were posted for the other 14 players who were shown a red card at the World Cup. Balogun’s was the only ban to be overturned.
The Group of Copenhagen has reportedly sent an official request for a written explanation to FIFA regarding the Balogun situation.
The full report has yet to be released, but the Council of Europe posted a summary of its findings, and sources told The Athletic that three other events were under investigation:
- Themba Zwane’s red card in the late stages of South Africa’s loss to Mexico in the tournament’s opening match.
- Polymarket taking $4.8 million on Spain to NOT beat Cape Verde in their match on June 15, which ended nil-nil.
- A three-and-a-half-minute review from the video assistant referee (VAR) which disallowed a goal by Spain’s Ferran Torres in his side’s 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia on June 21.
According to the Council of Europe, 15 of the 104 matches were placed under “enhanced monitoring, particularly during the final round of the group stage.”
The council noted that 12 “major controversies” were assessed from an “integrity risk perspective.”
“The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,” Christian Kalb, an expert on gambling integrity and regulation, told The Athletic. “The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues. When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviours, but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.”
For example, if you are a boutique bookmaker and you are taking a ton of action on a heavy favorite to win a particular match, you could use a prediction market to hedge the risk by backing the underdog with a large wager. Kalb notes that this would essentially be an “insurance policy” to help minimize big losses if the favorite does win, but it could look suspicious without knowing the context.
The rise of — and opaque regulations around — prediction markets was a point of emphasis for the Group of Copenhagen.
This was the first time that the watchdog was monitoring prediction markets, including Kalshi, an official partner of FIFA.
“These prediction markets raise unprecedented issues: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace. Monitoring them is a first for an international competition,” the group’s report noted.
The report came a day after FIFA’s Integrity Task Force reported that there were no instances of “suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture” at the tournament, which began June 11 and concluded July 19.
The Group of Copenhagen’s investigation was conducted in concert with FIFA’s Integrity Task Force.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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