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Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden smiles during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena.
Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Florida opens the NCAA Tournament as a massive favorite over Prairie View A&M in a game that the Gators should be able to handle with ease.
It’s a minor miracle the Panthers have even made it this far.
After finishing just 19-17 overall and 9-9 in-conference in the regular season, Prairie View had to make an unlikely run as the No. 8 seed in the SWAC tournament just to punch its ticket to March Madness.
Then, the Panthers stayed alive in the First Four, knocking off Lehigh 67-55 on Wednesday thanks to 25 points from Dontae Horne for the program’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win.
I’m betting the Cinderella run ends here, with the defending champs winning a classic 1-16 blowout that kicks off what should be a long tournament run.
The mismatch shows up not only in the massive spread, but in the power ratings too, with Florida sitting No. 4 at KenPom and Prairie View A&M down at No. 280.
The latter is, by far, the lowest of any team in the tournament.
Florida Gators guard Xaivian Lee (1) reacts after a made three point basket against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThe Gators’ loss in the SEC semifinal will be a blessing for their national title chances, and Prairie View A&M comes into the game on a high after their recent run.
No. 16 seeds coming off a First Four win have lost by an average of 23 points – and often as much as 40-plus – since the extra games came into the picture in 2011.
That list included many more talented teams than the out-of-nowhere Panthers.
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Don’t let Duke’s nail-biter against Siena scare you off.
This is a much worse No. 16 seed team.
The play: Florida -34.5 (-115, BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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