Florida’s COVID-era housing boom is over — biggest decline in prices in more than a decade

Home prices in the Sunshine State saw their biggest decline in more than a decade.

The median price for all home types in Florida fell 1.7% in March from the same time last year, according to Redfin, a national real estate brokerage. That’s a small number with big implications.

Bloomberg reported on the median home price data. 

“The pandemic rush to Florida is dying down, and with mortgage rates being so high and staying high, it makes it really unaffordable for people paying for those high prices,” Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari told the outlet.

An April report on home sales from Redfin identified the slowing pace of home sales across the country, when compared to the pandemic-era buying frenzy.

Even declines in median sales prices — one of the biggest declines of which were found in Jacksonville at 3.8% — aren’t attracting the same enthusiasm. Multiple Florida metros tracked the lowest shares of homes sold above list price in the country, including West Palm Beach at 7.2%, Fort Lauderdale at 8.4% and Miami at 8.5%. 

Declining in-migration is partly to blame, Bloomberg reported, as some once-eager out-of-state buyers look elsewhere. 

Potential buyers continue to chafe at high mortgage rates and insurance costs, too. Bokhari told the outlet that a lot of the market’s current distress is driven by lackluster condo sales. New upkeep requirements on condos following the fatal Surfside collapse are making units extra difficult to sell.

Median prices for condos and co-ops fell about 7% in March, Bloomberg reported, to $307,500. 

Inventory in Florida is reaching record highs this year as a result of these manifold pressures. 

While some experts point to the recent trends in Florida as a normalization, others aren’t so confident. Nick Gerli, a real estate analyst and CEO of the app Reventure, recently took to X to warn of a significant downtown facing Florida, Newsweek reported. Gerli warned that reduced migration to the state, an oversupply of homes and record high prices could cause an extended decline. 

“The true reality could be that Florida is now entering the downcycle of inbound migration, and that downcycle will last for years,” Gerli posted. “And the only thing that will fix this downcycle in migration, and entice more people to move back, is significantly cheaper prices.”

While the rest of the state is cooling off, however, the Palm Beach real estate market is on the rise, according to recent Douglas Elliman data. The affluent enclave saw single-family home sales jump by 63.2% in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year. This so-called “Trump bump” following the election is partly fueling the region’s healthy luxury market.