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23 hours ago
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Whatever happens in Week 1 of the NFL in fantasy football gets overblown. The surprise performers who explode for the biggest production get too much hype. The players who have bad first games get written off as busts.
The truth lies somewhere in between. Based on talent and situation, a lot of the disappointments will rebound over the long term. Likewise, those who put astronomical numbers will come back down to earth.
Going into Week 2, here's looking at players who had shocking statistical spikes and whether they are more of a fluke or "for real" in fantasy:
START 'EM, SIT 'EM: Week 2 Fantasy lineup advice
Biggest fantasy player overreactions from Week 1
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (245 passing yards, 4 TDs vs. Browns)
Caleb Williams and Josh Allen being the top two fantasy QBs in Week 1 is no shock. Few are buying Bryce Young at No. 3. Lawrence finishing fourth plays off his polarizing preseason ranking, ending up as the consensus QB9 or QB10 on the board.
Lawrence was the highest-scoring QB from Weeks 9 to 18 last season, averaging more than 23 points per game. He dropped 26.1 in Yahoo! standard leagues in Week 1. Since the middle of last season, he's had only one clunker in Liam Coen's offense. Not only is he loaded with weapons but he has shown some superb pinpoint passing. The Broncos' defense in Denver is a tougher matchup in Week 2 than Myles Garrett-less Cleveland at home, but Lawrence should still be played. When he played in Denver in Week 15 of last season, Lawrence put up 279 and 3 through the air and also had a rushing TD.
Tyler Shough, Saints (410 passing yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs vs. Lions)
Shough was a favorite deep sleeper at QB20 in preseason rankings, operating as the unquestioned Year 2 starter in Kellen Moore's offense. After a shaky first half, Shough ended up with 35 completions on 56 pass attempts in comeback mode through overtime. He got it done with plenty of targets to Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. Devaughn Vele also became a factor, filling the void of injured rookie No. 2 Jordyn Tyson.
The matchup in Detroit, however, was ideal, as New Orleans' shaky defense dug a big hole and set up Shough to chuck plenty on the Lions' bad pass defense. Shough is a fine streamer in these situations with his offensive skill support, now including top pass-catching back Travis Etienne.
Be wary, however, that Shough was sacked five times and had three turnovers for minus points. The Ravens on the road isn't favorable in Week 2. But he can get back on track with good numbers at home vs. the Raiders in Week 3 and the Falcons in Week 4.
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Running backs
D'Andre Swift, Bears (18 carries, 124 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 catch, 10 receiving yards vs. Panthers)
Swift was RB4 behind only Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker and Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 1. He was a mid-range RB2 (in the top 18-20) in preseason rankings, so he well out-performed that status while the Bears' running game, include Kyle Monangai, kept pounding on Carolina. Last season, Swift finished as the RB16 in half-point PPR.
The Bears' offense seems possessed in the second year under Ben Johnson, who has vowed his team will set the single-season scoring record. Swift got a nice raise in his new contract to indicate Johnson plans to be relentless in deploying him with the right dash of Monangai.
Although Swift was held to a combined 155 scoreless scrimmage yards against the Vikings last season, there's no way you can sit any principals in the offense. Williams, Swift, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and even goose-egged Colston Loveland should be in lineups every week they're healthy and the team isn't on a bye. "Swifties" should believe D'Andre will have a career year at 27.
David Montgomery, Texans (20 carries, 60 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 3 catches, 19 receiving yards, TD vs. Bills)
File Montgomery as another former Lions back who had a huge splash in Week 1. He was RB20 in preseason rankings and jumped to RB6 on the strength of scoring three times to boost 79 scrimmage yards. Buffalo has some issues against running backs, but the key was Montgomery getting 23 touches vs. Woody Marks' 10.
Although Houston averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt with Montgomery right at 3.0, the volume is the most appealing part going forward. Next the Texans host the Bengals, who gave up 93 scrimmage yards and a TD on 15 touches to the Buccaneers' Bucky Irving. Montgomery may be a tad scoring-dependent (like his time in Detroit) but his feature workload (like his time in Chicago) makes him a needed weekly play for now.
MORE: NFL Week 2 predictions against the spread
Wide receivers
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (5 catches, 150 receiving yards, TD vs. Colts)
Flowers was WR5 in Week 1 after finishing as WR14 in half-point PPR last season and being ranked as WR13. There was still some skepticism as Baltimore made the Pro Bowler one of the game's highest-paid wideouts before the season.
Those 150 yards were a career-high as Flowers hit a century for only the 10th time in 51 career games. He also has only 15 total TDs in four seasons with 5 as his high, twice. Flowers has tended to frustrate more with inconsistency, boom or bust from one game to the next. He also came out of Indianapolis with a hamstring injury.
That said, Flowers, assuming he's healthy, should crush it early in the season with the Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Browns and Bengals over the next six games. Flowers has the talent to finish as a top-6 fantasy receiver.
Jalen Coker, WR, Panthers (8 catches, 132 receiving yards, 2 TDs vs. Bears)
Coker was the WR1 on the board ahead of Flowers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Christian Watson in Week 1. He was fully healthy and looking better than even Panthers "No. 1" Tetairoa McMillan (5 catches, 75 yards). Coker clearly has great chemistry with Young to go up and get the ball through the red zone at 6-3, 213 pounds. His 57 snaps were more than McMillan (56) and Xavier Legette (36).
The undrafted third-year player from Holy Cross has flashed before but was hampered by a hamstring injury last season. He also came out of the Chicago game with a mild ankle injury. He should go in Week 2, when the Panthers play the Falcons. Top cornerback A.J. Terrell is unlikely to play with a shoulder injury. Coker won't go off every week, but it might be more a case that he cuts into McMillan's production and the team fields more like two top-25 receivers vs. one in the top 20.
MORE: Week 1 overreactions - Bears unstoppable, Packers cooked
Tight ends
Isaiah Likely, TE, Giants (8 catches, 78 receiving yards, 2 TDs vs. Cowboys)
Likely followed John Harbaugh to the Giants to break away from Mark Andrews' shadow for good in Baltimore. They didn't waste time using his hybrid receiving skills to make him the key No. 2 target for Jaxson Dart behind returning wide receiver Malik Nabers. The Cowboys invited that performance by playing a ton of zone looks in the first game with Christian Parker as defensive coordinator.
Dallas also was vulnerable in coverage over the middle. Likely was used well to exploit that in his first game with his new team. It doesn't hurt his offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, was used to having Travis Kelce be a big part of the Chiefs' passing attack.
The Rams, who play the Giants in Week 2, played a lot of zone against the 49ers in Week 1 and were burned and should adjust to more man looks. Los Angeles got a break with George Kittle needing to play only a limited role in his return from Achilles' injury. Likely should stay in lineups as a mid-to-back end TE1 (in the top 12) most weeks.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Bengals (5 catches, 78 yards, TD vs. Buccaneers)
Gesicki had a team-high 7 targets against Tampa Bay while both top fantasy wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase (2 catches, 12 yards on 4 targets) and Tee Higgins (3 catches, 59 yards on 6 targets) were letdowns in Week 1. Joe Burrow spread the ball around well to 9 receivers and Gesicki was open the most often through the red zone.
After the Bills' Dalton Kincaid ripped the Texans for 5 catches on 130 yards on 6 targets, it would seem like Gesicki can remain a big factor, especially when considering the cornerback duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. But Chase and Higgins are bound to be greased more outside after Houston gave up some big downfield plays to Josh Allen.
Trusting Gesicki for consistent production in the past has been a mistake. It's difficult to believe he will be featured in the passing game so much again this season.
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