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Timing is everything in fantasy baseball, especially when it comes to making trades. Strong managers know when to buy low, but the savvy, elite ones who know when to sell high.
Though it is tempting to hold onto a player riding a hot streak, long-term success often hinges on knowing when performance isn’t sustainable, or, in some cases, when history tells us a crash is inevitable.
Two of MLB’s biggest stars, Byron Buxton and Jacob deGrom, should be considered the biggest “sell-high” names right now.
Buxton is currently slashing .279/.345/.553 with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases.
He is on pace for a 30-30 season, any fantasy manager’s coveted dream.
But if you’ve rostered Buxton in the past, you know this ride doesn’t go on for much longer.
The Twins outfielder already has been on the IL twice this season, and we’re only at the halfway point. Over his 11-year MLB career, Buxton has played at least 100 games just twice. That isn’t a fluke, it’s a pattern.
The tools have never been the issue.
Buxton has always had elite power and speed, and his defensive value keeps him in the lineup when he is healthy.
But that’s the problem: He never stays healthy.
Byron Buxton already has been on the injured list twice this season. Getty ImagesEven if you’re generally “injury agnostic” during draft season — a valid strategy given the randomness of injuries — it becomes a different calculation midseason, especially when a player’s past injuries have a clear and persistent track record.
Buxton is giving you first-round production at a mid-round cost. That is your signal. Package him in a deal for a more durable star — someone with less upside maybe, but far more week-to-week reliability. Your goal is to win in September, not reminisce about how great your roster looked in June.
Trouble is brewing in Texas as well. Jacob deGrom is back — sort of. He has a sparkling 2.08 ERA over 95 ¹/₃ innings, eight wins and is coming off a dominant June (1.41 ERA, 32 IP). But let’s be clear: These are borrowed innings.
He hasn’t topped 100 innings in a season since 2019, and we’re already approaching that threshold. His strikeout rate has dipped to its lowest since 2016, and though he still is striking out nearly a batter per inning, that slight erosion is a red flag. Velocity and command are still elite, but this version of deGrom is not indestructible.
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Add in the brutal Texas summer and the Rangers’ likely playoff aspirations, and you’ve got a situation that could go south quickly. Whether they start managing his workload or he hits another IL stint, the odds of him being a full-strength ace in September are slim. If you’re clinging to his past Cy Young-level performance, you’re ignoring years of recent evidence.
There is no shame in selling high. In fact, that is what separates championship teams from the rest. Don’t wait for the third IL stint or a late-August shutdown. Swap Buxton and deGrom for players who can carry you through the fantasy playoffs — while others deal with the fallout.
Trust the track record. Sell the hype. Win the league.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
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