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The Buffalo Bills welcome the New England Patriots to Highmark Stadium for a primetime AFC East clash on Sunday night, with the undefeated Bills (4-0) listed as 8.5-point favorites.
New England enters at 2-2 after dismantling Carolina last week, showing signs of life behind rookie QB Drake Maye and a resurgent special teams unit.
Buffalo stayed perfect in Week 4 with a 31-19 win over the Saints, but ongoing defensive injuries have started to test their depth.
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What our Post expert thinks about Bill vs. Patriots
Maye has been lethal on money downs this season, leading the NFL in third and fourth down passer rating (133.3), completion rate (88.2%), and yards per attempt (9.9).
The Bills’ defense, despite ranking first against the pass, is allowing opponents to convert 42% of third downs, seventh-worst in the league — a potential mismatch Maye could exploit.
On the ground, Buffalo’s 30th-ranked run defense (141.8 YPG allowed) faces a Patriots rushing attack that scored three times last week and now gets a second look at a depleted Bills front.
While Josh Allen’s offense ranks second in points per game (33.3), Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in two straight games and has surrendered 27+ points in back-to-back weeks.
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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