Everyone is making the same Konnor Griffin mistake with Pirates phenom roster projection

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will get to decide whether MLB's No. 1 overall prospect, Konnor Griffin, makes their Opening Day roster or not.

But along this path, as every baseball analyst and Pittsburgh reporter has speculated on what will happen, the same mistake has happened over and over.

Everyone is acting like Griffin's individual, Spring Training at bat results will determine how the Pirates make the decision.

Overlooked in game between #Pirates and Tigers top prospects last night in Bradenton was that SS Konnor Griffin struck out twice in two official at bats. Not looking good for Griffin to start season with Pirates.

— Bob Smizik (@BobSmizik) March 21, 2026

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Sure, if Griffin went 0-for-50 with 49 strikeouts, that'd be something to read deeply into.

But the spring is a small sample size, and much more important is process rather than results.

And most of the advanced metrics suggest Griffin is hitting the ball very hard.

Besides, he's a shortstop. His defense will be majorly considered by the Pirates, too, and no one has spent much time analyzing that, for better or worse.

Plenty of all-time greats have had poor Spring Training performances.

Ichiro Suzuki famously struggled in his first spring stateside, then won Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season.

Shohei Ohtani had a bad first spring after signing with the Angels. He turned out OK.

Whether or not Griffin lives up to the hype will only be determined over the next decade or more.

Whether he makes the roster for Opening Day? It's not going to be about his Spring Training batting average, no matter how many people want to make it seem like that.

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