Europeans Plan Fewer Summer Trips to US in Latest Trump Backlash

6vt}byibmk}8c4h[4ro(yifz_media_dl_1.png OAG via Tourism Economics

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(Bloomberg) — Europeans are planning 10% fewer trips to the US as the busy summer season approaches, in the latest sign that some international travelers are avoiding America as backlash grows against President Donald Trump’s policies.

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The drop in flight bookings from Canada to the US in the May-July period is even more pronounced, at 33%, Tourism Economics said in a forecast released Friday. The group maintained its most-recent expectation for an 8.7% decline in US international arrivals for all of 2025. 

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Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on longstanding trade partners such as Canada and the European Union have contributed to “sentiment headwinds,” Tourism Economics said. The group, part of Oxford Economics, said Trump administration posturing, well-publicized border incidents and national advisories warning of the risks of travel to the US have also affected demand. 

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“We expect an $8.5 billion reduction (4.7%) in international visitor spending in 2025 relative to 2024,” Tourism Economics said. “These declines mark a stark contrast to our prior expectations for a continuation of post-pandemic growth this year.”

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The outlook’s release coincides with start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend that unofficially kicks off the US summer travel season. As of April, international inbound bookings to the US were down 9.5% in May from a year earlier, Tourism Economics said. Trips planned for June had fallen 10.8% and July was off 13%. 

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The group’s view matches recent updates from European and US airlines, some of which have withdrawn their 2025 forecasts in light of the unpredictable impact from Trump’s unilateral levies as trade talks take place with dozens of countries.

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Europe’s large network carriers, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, IAG SA and Air France-KLM have all reported some softness in economy cabin demand across the North Atlantic this summer. Short-haul specialists Ryanair Holdings Plc and EasyJet Plc say they’re benefiting from greater demand as travelers stay within the region. 

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In the US, airlines continue to battle economic uncertainty that’s weakened domestic demand, the rapid drop-off in Canadian visitors, and a weak dollar making foreign trips more expensive. 

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On Thursday, budget carrier Southwest Airlines Co. said at an industry conference that it continued to see softness in demand and expects a 4% drop in revenue this quarter. 

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A number of US carriers withdrew their full-year earnings forecasts last month, saying a surprise collapse in demand had clouded the outlook for the rest of 2025. Concern over trade wars, inflation, government job cuts and questions about border policies contributed to the erosion in domestic demand. 

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American Airlines Group Inc. said at the same that demand had stabilized since it withdrew its 2025 forecast, though at a lower level than what it expected at the start of the year. United Airlines Holdings Inc. also signaled a stable booking and revenue environment going into Memorial Day weekend.

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—With assistance from Mary Schlangenstein.

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