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(Bloomberg) — European natural gas resumed its advance as uncertainty over the duration of the supply disruption from the Iran war persisted, even as Washington extended a truce.
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Benchmark futures edged higher after dramatic swings in the previous session. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he’s indefinitely extending the ceasefire with Iran just before its expiration, while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after planned peace talks between the two sides didn’t happen.
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Trump said the US would hold off on fresh attacks on Iran, but keep blocking ships in Hormuz linked to Tehran until “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” On top of that, some ships were fired on near Hormuz, following attacks over the weekend that ratcheted up tensions in the vital waterway.
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“Gas will not flow through the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future,” said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank. Futures have retreated from last month’s peaks, but “the longer prices stay at the current low levels the bigger the upside becomes once the physical reality catches up.”
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Traders are laser focused on developments in the Middle East as Hormuz remains effectively blocked, cutting off about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. While most of that fuel would normally go to Asia, Europe faces increased competition for alternative supplies in the coming months, just as the region should be replenishing its gas inventories before winter.
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Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded up 2.4% at €42.94 a megawatt-hour by 10:42 a.m. in Amsterdam. The contracts added more than 8% in the previous two sessions.
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