European Climate Deal Set for Showdown Ahead of COP30 Summit

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(Bloomberg) — The next stage of the Europe’s climate transition hangs in the balance, with ministers meeting in Brussels to hash out a deal on the emissions cuts they expect to deliver over the next 15 years.

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The aim is to secure backing for a goal to cut emissions by 90% by 2040 relative to 1990 levels, as well as sign off on an updated climate pledge to submit to the United Nations just days before the COP30 summit is due to kick off in Brazil.

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Even with assurances over support for key industries, such as steel and cement, a number of European Union countries are expected to oppose some of the targets. The broad consensus on climate action that prevailed five years ago has splintered, giving way to trade protectionism and policies that seek to counter the impact of rising energy costs.

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A common position on both the 2040 climate goal and the UN pledge would show that the EU is still a leader in the fight against global warming, in a marked contrast to the US under President Donald Trump.

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“Pitifully, the president of the United States doesn’t seem to care about the future of his own country in relation to other countries or in relation to their own capacities to develop leading positions in new markets,” Teresa Ribera, the EU’s climate commissioner, said in an interview. “Europe needs to be that democratic powerhouse that ensures clean solutions for today’s problems.”

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Support for the goal of cutting emissions by 90%, and the conditions that underpin it, requires a qualified majority of the EU’s 27 member states. Much will come down to the position of France and Germany, the bloc’s two biggest economies, but also smaller member states like Belgium and Greece.

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“The European Union bears responsibility for global climate protection,” German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider said in a statement on Monday, adding that Germany supports the 90% target. “Europe can and will demonstrate that strong climate protection and a strong economy go hand in hand.”

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If an agreement is reached, member states will negotiate with the European Parliament on the final goal.

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Hungary and Slovakia are not expected to support the 90% target, while other countries in central and eastern Europe, like Poland, are also being carefully watched. There’s also concern from more progressive nations, notably Spain, that the EU’s climate ambitions could be watered down too much.

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France has secured secured concessions from the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, on steel and language on technical neutrality, which is a term often used to open the door to more nuclear power. The EU is also set to make changes to a controversial new carbon market that covers emissions from heating and road transport, known as ETS2, to limit price rises for consumers.