Europe’s Cold Snap Puts Thousands of New Heat Pumps to the Test

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(Bloomberg) — The Arctic cold snap hitting Europe this week will be a test for thousands of Polish families that in recent years replaced coal furnaces with solar panels and heat pumps to heat their homes.

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Temperatures are expected to drop to -5C (23F) later this week in Warsaw, almost 4C below average temperatures for this time of year. While Poland remains one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, homeowners are increasingly looking for cheaper and cleaner solutions. 

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“I used to burn coal,” said Jacek Owczarek, a 58-year-old resident of Lewkow, in central-west Poland. But when prices for the dirtiest fossil fuel jumped after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he switched to solar panels, with natural gas as a backup. “Now, because I produce twice as much electricity as I use, I’m adding a heat pump to the system.”

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In Poland, solar and wind capacity have soared almost nine-fold in the past decade and renewables made up over 40% of the country’s power in 2024, according to BloombergNEF. The country is on track to triple its clean energy capacity by the end of this decade from 2023 levels, meeting a global target set by nations at the United Nations climate summit known as COP two years ago.

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At this year’s climate meeting — COP30 in the Amazonian city of Belém — negotiators and ministers from close to 200 nations are debating how to meet that goal in time, possibly by developing a road map to exit fossil fuels. Tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial times, the target set in the Paris Agreement.

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“For the past 10 years we have witnessed an absolutely incredible technological change,” said Michal Kurtyka, a former Polish minister for climate and the environment and the president of COP27, held in Katowice, Poland, in 2018. “The implementation of the Paris Agreement has contributed to reinforce certainty for businesses to invest.”

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While the world is far behind on achieving most goals set at previous COPs, tripling renewables to about 11,500 gigawatts by 2030 can be achieved, researchers say. Last year, $2 trillion was invested globally in the clean energy transition, including renewables.

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Current policies and cost trends will result in 9,530 gigawatts of global renewable capacity by the end of this decade, according to the International Energy Agency. If countries take action to resolve challenges with permitting, financing and grid connections, that pace could result in 10,400 gigawatts of renewables by 2030.

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Poland is a case in point when it comes to the progress — and the challenges ahead. The government is heavily subsidizing solar energy, battery storage, heat pumps and home insulation, including through a 100 billion zloty ($27 billion) “clean air” program for its aging housing stock, built mostly under the Soviet regime before 1989. Poles have installed over 13 gigawatts of photovoltaic panels on their rooftops in the last seven years, helping them cut electricity bills.