.jpg)
1 hour ago
3
![cjo10yc1y(el2bvt11aor91]_media_dl_1.png](https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/financialpost/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/european-gas-price-volatility.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=JHCQTucZLdaV8hxF8IEWog)
Article content
(Bloomberg) — Some European natural gas traders are already hedging against a spike in prices next winter as the war in the Middle East continues to disrupt supplies.
THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
- Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.
- Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.
- Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
- National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
- Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
- Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.
- Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.
- Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
- National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
- Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
- Access articles from across Canada with one account.
- Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.
- Enjoy additional articles per month.
- Get email updates from your favourite authors.
THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
- Access articles from across Canada with one account
- Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments
- Enjoy additional articles per month
- Get email updates from your favourite authors
Sign In or Create an Account
or
Article content
Options contracts traded over the past week suggest that European benchmark gas prices could reach as high as €100 a megawatt-hour next winter — more than double the current level — when fuel consumption surges. The wagers reflect growing confidence among traders that a lengthy conflict could jeopardize the already slow efforts in Europe to refill inventories ahead of next winter.
Article content
Article content
Article content
The Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway for global energy supplies — has been effectively closed since the war began at the end of February, choking off a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas supplies and driving prices higher. While most gas from the Middle East normally goes to Asia, the disruption has threatened to intensify competition for a limited global pool of seaborne supply.
Article content
By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.
Article content
Benchmark gas prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the war and are now trading near €47 a megawatt-hour.
Article content
While implied volatility — a measure derived from the cost of underlying options contracts — has come down from the peaks during the first week of the war, it’s more than tripled since the start of this year. And the call skew for January increased by 4 percentage points over the past week as traders added protection against a winter rally.
Article content
The region’s vast storage facilities are now about 34% full, significantly below the 45% five-year average for this time of the year. While it’s normal for storage to decline in winter and be refilled in summer, this year’s campaign has been slow to take off.
Article content
October-March strips of €75/€100 call spreads have been trading over the past week, along with risk reversals at different levels — buying €75 and €100 calls, selling €42 and €35 puts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Article content
Advertisement 1
English (US)