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(Bloomberg) — European natural gas headed for its biggest monthly gain in at least two years after cold spells and a rapid depletion of fuel inventories upended market sentiment.
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Benchmark futures edged higher on Friday, putting this month’s advance around 38%. That’s the biggest such rise since summer 2023 and could be the largest since the energy crunch four years ago if daily gains hold.
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While fears about supplies have eased following a rebound in US exports, freezing conditions and higher demand are expected in parts of the region in early February.
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January was a volatile month for Europe’s gas market, reflecting renewed concerns about the continent’s fragile fuel balance. In addition to increased gas consumption, a winter storm in the US briefly disrupted some production sites and sparked a sharp rally in American prices, adding to a frantic scramble among European traders to cover their earlier bearish positions. Tensions in the Middle East have also added to bullish momentum.
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“Price risks are still skewed to the upside given unseasonably low inventories,” Energy Aspects analysts led by James Waddell said in a note this week. Weather models have been unstable in recent weeks, accounting for some of the increased volatility in gas prices, they wrote.
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Traders are also monitoring the situation in Iran, with US President Donald Trump’s escalating threats against the country keeping broader energy markets on edge. At the same time, Trump said Thursday he’s secured an agreement from Russia to halt strikes on Ukraine for a week as the country prepares for an extreme cold snap.
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Benchmark Dutch gas futures for March delivery edged 0.5% higher at €38.77 a megawatt-hour by 8:52 a.m. in Amsterdam.
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