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(Bloomberg) — After months of intensive talks and shuttle diplomacy, a trade agreement between the European Union and the US now rests mostly on Donald Trump.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Scotland to meet the US president on Sunday, as the two sides aim to conclude a deal ahead of Friday’s deadline, at which point 30% tariffs on the bloc’s exports to the US are otherwise due to kick in.
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“Intensive negotiations at technical and political have been ongoing,” said Paula Pinho, von der Leyen’s spokesperson. “Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.”
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EU officials have repeatedly cautioned that a deal ultimately rests with Trump, making the final outcome difficult to predict. The US president recently negotiated with Japan and appeared to change certain final terms on the fly before a deal was eventually agreed earlier this week.
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The EU and US have been zeroing in on an agreement over the past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade with the US. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs, Bloomberg previously reported.
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Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion, but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%.
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Alongside a universal levy, the US president has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% levy, and steel and aluminum with double that. He’s also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper.
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The EU is expecting the same 15% ceiling on some sectors that could be the target of future tariffs, including pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter. But that’s one of the key points where Trump’s position will be crucial to a deal being sealed, the people added.
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“We’ll see if we make a deal,” Trump said as he arrived in Scotland on Friday. “Ursula will be here, highly respected woman. So we look forward to that.”
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Trump reiterated that he believed there’s “a 50-50 chance” of a deal with the EU, saying there were sticking points on “maybe 20 different things” that he didn’t want to detail publicly.
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“That would be actually the biggest deal of them all if we make it,” the president said.
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Trump gave similar chances of an agreement with European negotiators before leaving Washington, but also said the EU had a “pretty good chance” of reaching an agreement.
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