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(Bloomberg) — European carbon prices extended a week-long gain, with surging natural gas costs, weaker nuclear power supply and forecasts for colder weather expected to drive demand for emissions permits.
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Benchmark carbon allowances rose as much as 2.2% on ICE Endex on Thursday, reaching the highest since mid-2023. Prices have climbed in all but one session this month, and are up more than 6% since the start of the year, topping €90 a ton.
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“Carbon prices are on a runaway train,” said Rabobank energy strategist Florence Schmit. “If the current weather conditions persist, prices could soon approach €100 per ton before the market eventually corrects.”
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Power output from reactors in France, which has by far the highest nuclear capacity in Europe, has declined after a 4-gigawatt plant was taken offline due to damage from Storm Goretti. Another unplanned outage at a smaller unit has exacerbated the shortfall.
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The squeeze on generation may lead to higher production from plants burning fossil fuels. It also comes as Europe braces for a cold snap, with icy Siberian air expected to sweep the continent later this month, lifting heating demand. That’s pushed up natural gas prices to the highest since early October.
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When gas gets more expensive, power plants that run on the fuel become less competitive, prompting utilities to burn dirtier coal instead — a shift that increases demand for emissions permits. At the same time, forecasts indicate a stretch of still weather across northwest Europe, meaning wind energy will drop.
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Carbon prices have trended upward for months amid a tightening of permits that resulted in increased net-long positions, ICE data show. The number of market participants is rising, indicating that the buildup in net longs is being driven in part by new entrants, Engie SA said in an EnergyScan report.
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Carbon permits traded up 1.3% at €93.05 a ton as of 12:37 p.m. in London.
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—With assistance from Lars Paulsson.
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