Through the first five weeks of the 2026 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-4, with their lone victory a nearly blown upset of the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

Unfortunately for this Buccaneers team, things aren't going well so far this season. They're sitting at the bottom of the NFC South and could be looking at a bottom-10 season. But would that be enough for Tampa Bay to fire Todd Bowles?

According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Bowles might not get fired unless Tampa Bay is able to stay in the NFC South race with Baker Mayfield out. But if they continue to lose and fall out of the division race, Bowles might be on his way out.

Todd Bowles might be fired if Buccaneers can't stay alive in NFC South without Baker Mayfield

"If Bowles can stick in the NFC South race and stay afloat. until Mayfield returns, he should be back in 2027," Barnwell writes. "If Tampa goes on another losing streak, though, Bowles might have to walk the plank."

The Buccaneers' Week 5 win over the Cowboys has postponed any job change for Bowles. That was a huge win for his job status, and it came in primetime.

Looking ahead to the next few weeks, the Buccaneers face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, followed by the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears before the team's Week 10 bye.

MORE: Mike Evans trolls Trevon Diggs with classic 'Who are you?' jersey check in viral exchange

The only real way to stay afloat in the NFC playoff race this season is for the Buccaneers to go 2-2 during that four-game stretch. A 1-3 record would put them at 2-7 entering their Week 10 bye. That wouldn't be good enough.

Even if Mayfield is back soon, the Buccaneers might've dug themselves into too large a hole for Bowles to save his job.

But if Tampa Bay somehow stays alive in the NFC South race with wins over the Falcons and Panthers these next four weeks, they could be looking at another year of Bowles.

Currently, it's trending towards Bowles being fired this season. He has a chance to save his job, but it's going to take a huge next few weeks to remain as the Buccaneers' head coach beyond the 2026 season.

More NFL news: