ENG vs IND 2025: Prediction - will Joe Root surpass Sachin Tendulkar's all-time run tally in Tests?

Ace England batter Joe Root continued his record-breaking spree in the long format by achieving another massive milestone on Day 3 of the fourth Test against India in Manchester. The 34-year-old surpassed three all-time greats, Rahul Dravid, Jacques Kallis, and Ricky Ponting, to move up to second on total Test runs.

While Root took little time in overtaking the first two, his 38th century helped him upstage the former Australian captain. The stylish England right-hander eventually finished on 150 from 248 deliveries to help his side inch closer to a series win.

Meanwhile, the discussions about Root reaching the mountain top have multiplied after his feat on Day 3. Sachin Tendulkar's record run tally of 15,921 runs appeared to be one of the most untouchable feats.

Yet, Root's incredible form over the past half-decade has the former England captain within shouting distance of possibly eclipsing Tendulkar's extraordinary record. Fans and former players have been vocal about England's finest potentially reaching Mount Everest - a place Tendulkar has held since 2008.

Will Joe Root conquer what was once deemed unconquerable? Let us deep dive into the key factors and find out if the former England captain can overtake Sachin Tendulkar to become Test cricket's all-time leading run-scorer.

Projection of likely scenarios

Projecting anything in sports is arguably the toughest challenge, thanks to a variety of unforeseeable factors playing a part. Yet, the exercise is slightly easier in the case of legendary players, who have exuded excellence for long periods.

Root is currently on 13,409 runs, still, 2,512 runs behind Tendulkar's record run tally of 15,921. Going by his overall Test average of 51.17, the maverick England batter will require another 50 innings at the same rate to dethrone the Little Master.

The tricky part comes when weighing Root's recent form and his age and coming to a conclusion on which will likely play a bigger role in his average for the next few years. The champion batter has averaged an incredible 59.14 in Tests since 2023, and should he continue on this path, it would take him only 43 innings to break Tendulkar's record.

Yet, it would be wise to factor in some drop-off due to age and predict an average of around 45 from hereon until the end of Root's career. In that case, it would take him 56 innings to surpass Tendulkar's run tally.

Assuming Root bats twice in most Test matches he plays, his overall Test average will take him 28 games to become the all-time leading run-scorer in the format. Should he continue performing similarly to his last three years for the next while, the number of Tests needed reduces to 24.

Meanwhile, factoring in a barren patch and an average of 45 going forward will mean Root breaks Tendulkar's record in 32 matches.

When Joe Root can realistically break Sachin Tendulkar's record

Having projected the three realistic scenarios of how many Tests it could take Joe Root to surpass Sachin Tendulkar, let us perform a similar exercise to figure out when he would achieve the monumental feat. The 34-year-old has played 55 matches over the last four full years since the start of the 2020s (excluding 2025).

Using a similar trend, it would be fair to consider Root playing an average of 13 to 14 Tests per year moving forward. As he ages into the late 30s, a wiser number to consider would be 13 or even 12. England also have another five Tests in the ongoing year (final Test against India and four Ashes Tests).

With that and an average of 12 Tests per year, Root will likely break Tendulkar's record by the end of 2027, should he continue averaging his overall Test average of 51.17.

The two extreme cases of averaging almost 60, like the last three years, or dropping off to 45, will see him achieve the milestone near the middle of 2027 or the first half of 2028.

Verdict

Projections can often go haywire, thanks to the several variables involved in a sportsperson's career. Unforeseen injuries, coupled with sudden surges and dips for prolonged periods, can derail all bets.

Yet, in Joe Root's case, his limited participation in the white-ball formats should help him play at least until 38, if not beyond.

Considering all these factors, here is a scenario-wise projection of all the possibilities of Root breaking Tendulkar's record.

Joe Root vs Sachin Tendulkar

Joe Root vs Sachin Tendulkar

The above tables demonstrate how realistic it is for Root to surpass Tendulkar atop the runs tally in Tests. Even if the England great averages a lowly 35 from hereon, he should achieve the feat in 3.5 years when he turns 38.

Joe Root will still likely complete the milestone in fewer matches (197) than the former Indian batter (200), even with an average of 35 moving forward. Furthermore, it is fair to assume that if the 34-year-old comes within 1,000 runs of the record, neither will he retire nor will England drop him should such a situation arise.

Verdict: Joe Root will break Sachin Tendulkar's all-time runs tally in Tests

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Edited by Venkatesh Ravichandran