Energy volatility could fast-track global EV adoption to 50% above base case, Wood Mackenzie finds

Article content

The investment challenge: minerals and infrastructure

Article content

Wood Mackenzie estimates that an additional US$45 billion in greenfield metals supply over the next decade would be sufficient to support the accelerated EV growth projected under the scenario.

Article content

Copper is the most critical bottleneck. Annual mine capacity additions would need to rise from around 850,000 tonnes per year, the long-term average, to approximately 960,000 tonnes per year through 2040, requiring roughly US$25 billion of that additional investment.

Article content

Much of that capital would need to flow into higher-risk jurisdictions including Argentina, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Pakistan. If established mining regions such as Chile, Peru and the US fail to streamline permitting and maintain competitive fiscal terms, a larger share of future growth will shift toward state-backed Chinese entities, deepening Western supply chain exposure.

Article content

Charging infrastructure presents a parallel challenge, but one that can be managed

Article content

To accommodate higher power demand from EVs, countries will need to expand managed charging: programmes that shift charging to times when the grid has ample supply and costs are lowest.

Article content

Article content

If electricity suppliers and regulators can shift EV charging to periods of ample power supply, grids can be kept stable and charging costs competitive even as power demand from EVs rises.

Article content

In western Europe, 50% of EV charging is already managed in this way. Under the electric shock scenario, that proportion rises to 85% across Europe by 2040. The US, where managed charging currently accounts for just 5% of sessions, would need to follow suit to keep pace with accelerating EV adoption.

Article content

The world’s 7 million public charging ports currently sit at just 15% utilisation, but the electric shock scenario would consume that slack quickly. China would require an additional 4 million ports by 2040, representing roughly US$200 billion in incremental investment. Europe would need an extra US$108 billion to build 2.7 million additional ports above the base case.

Article content

Conclusions

Article content

“Geopolitics, consumer behaviour and technological innovation could converge to lift EV sales faster than in our base case,” said Brown. “For OECD countries, securing critical mineral supplies and technological know-how over time will deliver lasting strategic advantage. Battery supply chains could be particularly important in light of the surge in demand for energy storage resulting from the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.”

Article content

Article content

Article content

For further information please contact Wood Mackenzie’s media relations team:

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

You have received this news release from Wood Mackenzie because of the details we hold about you. If the information we have is incorrect you can either provide your updated preferences by contacting our media relations team. If you do not wish to receive this type of email in the future, please reply with ‘unsubscribe’ in the subject header.  

Article content

About Wood Mackenzie:

Article content

Wood Mackenzie is the global leader in analytics, insights and proprietary data across the entire energy and natural resources landscape. For over 50 years our work has guided the decisions of the world’s most influential energy producers, utilities companies, financial institutions and governments. Now, with the world’s energy system more complex and interconnected than ever before, sector-specific views are no longer enough. That’s why we’ve redefined what’s possible with Intelligence Connected: the fusion of our unparalleled proprietary data with the sharpest analytical minds, all supercharged by Synoptic AI, to deliver a clear, interconnected view of the entire value chain. Our trusted team of 2,700 experts across 30 countries breaks siloes and connects industries, markets and regions across the globe to empower our customers to identify risk sooner, spot opportunity faster and make every decision with complete confidence.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content