Emerging Stocks Rise to Record High on AI, Iran’s Hormuz Offer

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(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market equities rose to a record high, buoyed by optimism over artificial intelligence and a report that Iran offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Financial Post

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The MSCI EM Index rose as much as 1.5% on Monday, surpassing the previous peak in February. Investors have been placated by a lack of re-escalating tensions in the Middle East, with a ceasefire between the US and Iran holding since early April. A gauge tracking developing-world currencies also gained about 0.2%. 

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Read Axios report: Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks

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Emerging-market stocks are staging a stunning recovery after sliding more than 10% after the Iran war erupted. Gains in Asian shares, which comprise about 76% of the index, are helping the rebound as investors focused on optimism around AI, with indexes in South Korea and Taiwan hitting a record high on Monday too. 

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The rally “underscores a market being propelled by structural forces rather than short‑term news flow,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. “We expect the MSCI EM to grind higher into year end, led by strong earnings momentum from AI beneficiaries alongside sustained investment in energy, infrastructure, and defense.”

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EM stocks have advanced about 16% this year, thrice the gains of the S&P 500 Index. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is projected to deliver an 18% return over the next 12 months, compared with 16% for the MSCI World Index, based on Bloomberg’s aggregation of consensus target prices for the constituents of both benchmarks.

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(Updates with fund manager’s comment in fourth paragraph.)

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