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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul retains just a five percentage point lead against potential 2026 Republican challenger Elise Stefanik — and loses that advantage when likely voters first hear about both candidates’ records, according to a new internal poll.
Stefanik trails behind Hochul, 48% to 43%, on an initial ballot but narrowly beats the incumbent Democrat, 46.4% to 45.9%, when voters leaning toward voting in the 2026 race hear about the governor endorsing New York City mayoral frontrunner and socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, the poll found, among other issues.
If Mamdani wins Gracie Mansion, up to 47% of independent voters also said they’d be less likely to vote for Hochul or other Democrats up and down the ballot in the midterms.
The survey, paid for by Stefanik’s leadership fundraising committee E-PAC, showed likely gubernatorial voters also downgraded Hochul for her record on supporting bail reform in New York and other cost-of-living concerns.
Hochul’s job performance rating is also underwater, 56% to 39%, and at least half of the likely voters polled strongly disapprove of the Democrat.
Meanwhile, just 34% of the likely voters said as of this month they were ready to re-elect Hochul, while 59% said it was time for someone new.
Pollster Landon Wall, of the firm Grayhouse, said his survey of 1,250 likely 2026 midterm voters reveals Hochul is in a “deeply vulnerable position.”
“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” Wall wrote in a memo outlining the poll’s findings.
“The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,” he added.
In a Democrat primary against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado – who announced in June he would challenge his estranged boss for the governorship – Hochul received only 43% support from New Yorkers, with 14% backing Delgado, 15% going for someone else and 28% undecided.
“A sitting Governor unable to secure majority support from her own party indicates substantial vulnerability,” Wall said, describing Hochul as “one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.”
Stefanik, who will formally enter the governor’s race after the November midterm elections, is expected to have a clear path to the GOP nomination in the Empire State.
“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said in a statement.
“It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the Communist Antisemite running for Mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party,” the House Republican Leadership chairwoman continued. “Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills.”
“Kathy Hochul’s single-party Democrat rule affordability crisis, coupled with the crime crisis from failed bail reform, combined with the sanctuary state policies costing, putting criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last, is a political disaster for Hochul.”
Alex deGrasse, a Stefanik campaign adviser, noted that the “devastating” poll for Hochul comes before the New York congresswoman has even launched her bid for the governor’s mansion.
“What is truly remarkable about this poll is that this is before Elise has even formally announced her campaign,” deGrasse said in a statement. “There is a reason why Kathy is running scared.”
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