Electric vehicle outlook sinks after U.S. withdraws policy support

Softer U.S. demand will weigh on global adoption, with sales of electric passenger vehicles only reaching 35.6 million by 2030. Photo by Jonathan NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images

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EVs are now expected to account for 17 per cent of U.S. passenger vehicle sales in 2030, according to BloombergNEF’s latest outlook for battery-powered vehicles. That’s down from an estimated 27 per cent in last year’s forecast and far below 2024’s projection of 48 per cent.

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Softer U.S. demand will weigh on global adoption, with sales of electric passenger vehicles reaching 35.6 million by 2030, BloombergNEF said, about 3.4 million fewer than last year’s forecast.

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The outlook reflects the fallout from the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers all but eliminating U.S. government support for EV adoption by consumers. Under Trump, policymakers have moved to significantly weaken fuel-efficiency standards, revoke California’s EV sales mandate and eliminated a US$7,500 federal tax credit for EVs.

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Electric vehicles at a dealership in California.

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Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and rising global trade barriers also hurt automakers’ ability to sell EVs competitively in the U.S., said Andrew Grant, head of intelligent mobility at BloombergNEF and a coauthor of the report.

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“We did go in with kind of an expectation that the U.S. might not be living up to the type of outlook that we’ve had in previous years,” Grant said.

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Automakers have responded by dramatically curtailing ambitions EV plans, with production of at least 27 existing and future models being reduced, cancelled or delayed in the last year, according to BloombergNEF. Automakers such as Stellantis NV, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Honda Motor Co. have recently incurred about US$64 billion in EV-related losses, the report said.

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And although China continues to dominate, with the country accounting for around 62 per cent of EVs sold globally this year, growth is also expected to slow largely due to changes in subsidy programs. EV sales are projected to increase 10 per cent in China this year, less than the 16 per cent gain seen in 2025 and the 39 per cent jump in 2024, according to the report.

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—With assistance from Craig Trudell.

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