El Nino explained, and what it means for Californians

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Weather experts are predicting another El Niño in 2026, and whether it elevates to strong or “Super” levels is what Californians should be paying attention to.

The late-summer through early-winter weather will be determined by what’s happening now in the middle of the Pacific Ocean near the equator … and that is warming water.

“What that does is rising air, more evaporation, you’ve got more in the way of thunderstorms that develop,” FOX Weather meteorologist Craig Herrera explained. “Most people in Southern California will remember Hilary. By the time it got to California, all of that moisture was getting banked up against the San Jacinto Mountains, drenched the deserts, and the effects were just catastrophic with the flooding. That’s when we had a strong El Nino.”

Warming Pacific Ocean waters leads to El Ninos. (Getty Images) California Post
Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for April 2026. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. C3S/ECMWF
Huge storms could be coming to Los Angeles in the fall. (Getty Images) California Post

The next level higher is known as a “Super El Niño,” and there have been indications that could be coming. 

“The recent numbers show that the waters are warming up even faster, which is why we’re more concerned,” Herrera said.

FOX Weather meteorologist Craig Herrera explains how warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in March could mean a potential “Super El Nino” for later in 2026. California Post

For Californians, that could mean intense rain, but past El Niños have been inconsistent with how much.

“It’s kind of hit or miss,” Herrera said “You’re gonna hear a lot of talk about, ‘El Nino’s gonna bring us out of our deficits, and it’s gonna save us.’ Hopefully it will, but I wouldn’t bank on it, and I would wait ‘till later on in the season and into the winter months.”

For a more-detailed explanation of El Niño and how it could impact Californians, watch the video above.

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