Earnings Bonanza That No One Saw Coming Fuels Stocks’ Record Run

ganqf}u8fex8ds}hr3wzud0c_media_dl_1.png Bloomberg Intelligence

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(Bloomberg) — The war in Iran was supposed to derail the rally in US stocks and weigh on company outlooks. Instead a blowout earnings season is providing fresh fodder for Wall Street bulls.

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Corporate America has outstripped expectations by the widest margin outside the Covid-19 era since at least 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. First-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies have surged 27% so far, more than double the roughly 12% analysts had penciled in. The last time year-on-year earnings grew at that pace outside of recoveries from major shocks was over two decades ago, in 2004.

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“I don’t think I remember a time that sell-side consensus missed actual earnings number by so much,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz & Co SA. He began the year positioned for international markets to outperform, but the war and AI boom prompted him to tactically shift back toward US stocks, noting that regions such as China and Europe “might not be the winners of this war.”

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It’s been a wake-up call for Wall Street as stocks race from record to record, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both closed at all-time highs on Friday. Economic resilience has silenced fears of a slowdown in global growth, while concerns that massive investments in hyperscalers and adjacent industries wouldn’t translate into tangible profit growth appear equally overdone.

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Market forecasters have struggled to keep up. Minneapolis-based US Bank started the year forecasting that S&P 500 earnings would hit $305 in 2026. The first quarter has been so strong that the firm will need to raise its estimates for the year and probably its year-end S&P 500 target, according to Robert Haworth, senior investment strategy director at the bank’s wealth management arm. “We’re clearly low,” he said.

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This earnings season is shaping up to be all the more remarkable as beats have turned out to be as impressive in scope as they have been in size, with about 85% of companies surpassing analyst forecasts. That amounts to the best hit rate in five years, according to Societe Generale strategists.

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“The market starts to catch up with future earnings power in AI-related companies,” said Wendy Soong, a BI equity strategy analyst. “Though the Iran war created supply chain interruption, it also attracted appeal to invest in the US as risk diversification.”

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Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings continues to come from the technology behemoths viewed as the major beneficiaries of artificial intelligence development. The so-called Magnificent Seven firms — Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. — are expected to post a 57% jump in profits in the first quarter, BI-compiled data show. For the rest of the S&P 500, profits are expected to climb 17% in the January to March period.

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“I can’t think of a time when you’ve had this long of a string of earnings growth,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments LLC. He expects the current rally to be sustained as quarterly earnings growth continues in the double digits for 2026. AI is “going to drive growth for a while.”