Donald Trump’s tariffs are pulling in billions, but is it really a win?

U.S. President Donald Trump holds up the document after introducing sweeping tariffs worldwide on what he dubbed Liberation Day on April 2. Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

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Data rolling in on the collection of tariffs by the United States suggests the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump is already generating significant revenue for the U.S. Treasury.

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More than US$26.6 billion was brought in for June, nearly quadruple the US$7.3 billion raised in January. More than US$108 billion has been collected in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, nearly double the total raised at this point a year earlier.

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The increase in tariff revenue began to spike in April when customs duties (after any refunds) hit US$15.6 billion. By May, the haul had jumped to US$22.2 billion.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the tariffs — as low as 10 per cent for some countries and at least 50 per cent for China and some Canadian imports such as steel and aluminum — are on track to pull in US$300 billion.

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It’s a sizeable haul for a president who has faced criticism for on-again, off-again tariff threats that earned the nickname TACO — short for Trump Always Chickens Out.

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While the tariff data so far is being heralded by the Trump administration as a win, policy and trade observers aren’t as sure it signals a long-term victory.

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“On balance, I would expect tariff revenue to be higher in the short run than out in the medium to long run,” said Marc-André Pigeon, an assistant professor at the University of Saskatchewan’s graduate school of public policy.

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Recession risk

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He said a number of things could cause a drag on the increased revenue, some desirable to the Trump administration and others not. More re-shoring of industry, which the administration wants, would cause the figures to drop. On the negative side of the ledger, so would an economic downturn, which some economists are predicting as a result of the trade policies, and a stronger U.S. dollar relative to other countries’ currencies.

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Several countries including Canada are in the midst of talks aimed at securing more favourable trade terms that would offset the tariffs imposed on them. If successful, it would mean lower revenue for the U.S. government over time, but there is no assurance Trump will yield. Prime minister Mark Carney told reporters this week that securing a trade deal with the U.S. without some tariffs is unlikely.

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Teresa Cyrus, an associate professor and chair of the Department of economics at Dalhousie University in Halifax, suggested the US$300 billion tariff haul Bessent is touting for the year may not bode well for further deals with Trump.

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“Perhaps Bessent is hinting that trade deals are unlikely?” she said in an email.

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Global trade shuffle

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In the past, sustained steep tariffs have not come without upheaval in trading partners and supply chains as countries seek alternatives trading partners and buyers turn to jurisdictions where they can pay the least for supplies — and that, too, could have an impact on U.S. tariff-based revenue.

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William Pellerin, a partner in the international trade group at law firm McMillan LLP, said some of that is already happening.